Roma vs. Leicester City Odds
| Roma Odds | +110 |
| Leicester Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
All is left to play for at the Stadio Olimpico on Thursday when Roma or Leicester City will progress to the Europa Conference League final.
Manager Jose Mourinho and Roma produced a dream start at King Power Stadium, going ahead 1-0 on 15 minutes. However, a Ginaluca Mancini own goal on 67 minutes saw the Foxes get back on level terms at the conclusion of the first leg.
Entering the second meeting, Roma is a -185 favorite to advance to the final, with Leicester City sitting at +135 on the comeback.
Roma Quite Fortunate in Opening Clash
Although Roma went ahead in the opening leg, it was lucky not to concede more goals.
A normally reliable defense yielded three big scoring chances to Leicester City and 13 total shots. Plus, its offensive output wasn't great either as Roma generated only four total shots and a single big scoring chance (per fotmob.com) against a normally weak Leicester City defense.
However, the good news for Roma is now it finds itself at home, where it has been impenetrable in this competition. Entering this meeting, Roma is 4-0-2 (W-L-D) at the Stadio Olimpico in the competition. Add in its home outputs in Serie A, Roma will bring a 14-3-7 (W-L-D) record to this fixture on home soil.
Plus, its defense has proved much more reliable at home. In those 24 combined matches, Roma has kept 13 clean sheets and has conceded more than once only five times.
Further, its attack has run rampant at home recently. Just in its last six home fixtures across all competitions, it has created at least two big scoring chances in five and a combined eight big chances in its last two Europa Conference League fixtures.
History Working Against Leicester City
If Leicester City is to pull off the upset in Rome, the club will have to buck some negative historical trends.
At this juncture in the season, Leicester owns a -8.6 road expected goal differential just in Premier League play, per fbref.com. That said, its Europa Conference League road results are slightly more even. In its road round of 16 fixtures against Rennes, Leicester lost, 2-1, and dropped the big scoring chances battle. Yet, in the quarterfinal against PSV Eindhoven, the Foxes won, 2-1, and dominated the big scoring chances battle by a 5-1 margin.
Further, in its last seven road fixtures overall, manager Brendan Rodgers' side has conceded north of 1.7 big scoring chances per 90 minutes and held only two opponents under two big chances, per fotmob.com.
Most concerning will be Leicester's attacking metrics, though. In those same seven road fixtures, Leicester has created zero big scoring chances in its last three and only nine across its last seven contests
Additionally, just in its last five roadEPL fixtures, Leicester has created less than one xG goal in four outings.
Betting Analysis & Pick
We're already live on Roma to advance based on last week's column, so I'm not going to get over-confident and double down with a side.
However, where I do see value is in one particular Single Game Parlay. It's my belief Roma's defense is the strongest unit among the four and can hold Leicester's attack to the point of doing no worse than a draw in regular time. Add in Roma's aforementioned home record and I'm confident we won't see a stunner from the Foxes at the Stadio Olimpico.
It's also worth noting Roma has scored first in three consecutive Conference League games and nine of 13 contests overall, while Leicester has conceded first in two games in a row in this competition.
With that in mind, I'm choosing to back a Single Game Parlay pairing Roma to Score First with the Italian side via the Double Chance for the first 90 minutes plus injury time at -115 odds.
Pick: Single Game Parlay — Roma To Score First & Roma (Double Chance) (-115)
