The Europa League knockout round is over after some very memorable moments, including Barcelona eliminating Napoli and Scottish champion Rangers downing Borussia Dortmund over two legs.
So, these are the Round of 16 matchups in the competition.
A big week ahead in the Europa League 👊#MondayMotivation | #UELpic.twitter.com/mxLGQCkGuf
— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) March 7, 2022
Note: Spartak Moscow has been suspended by UEFA due to the ongoing conflict happening in Ukraine. Therefore, RB Leipzig has been awarded a spot in the quarterfinal round.
There are some really intriguing matchups on deck, highlighted by Spanish club Sevilla taking on Premier League side West Ham United. We also have Atalanta facing Bayer Leverkusen, plus Rangers battling Red Star Belgrade.
Before we get to the projections, let's take a look at the complete betting odds to win Europa League title.
Latest Europa League Odds
*Odds via BetMGM
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Barcelona | +275 |
| RB Leipzig | +400 |
| Sevilla | +550 |
| Atalanta | +800 |
| Real Betis | +1100 |
| West Ham | +1200 |
| Porto | +1400 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | +1800 |
| Rangers | +1800 |
| Lyon | +2000 |
| Monaco | +2000 |
| Frankfurt | +4000 |
| Red Star Belgrade | +6600 |
| Galatasaray | +8000 |
| Braga | +8000 |
If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.
For the Europa League, my projections factor in UEFA Coefficients for every country represented in the competition. The projections also factor in the talent of each squad based on their total transfer value on Transfer Market.
That way, the projections can account for the strength of the domestic league each club plays in and the talent level of each club.
Europa League Projections
Best Bets
Sevilla vs. West Ham
| Sevilla Odds | +105 |
| West Ham Odds | +290 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+105 / +145) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here | |
Sevilla has been drastically over-performing in La Liga over the past four months. Since Nov. 20, the club has picked up the third most points in the Spanish top flight, has a +7 actual goal differential, but also carries a subpar -2.02 xG differential, per understat.com.
The reason for that is because its defense has been pretty fortunate, allowing 18 goals on 24.8 xG this season. Additionally, the Sevilla defense was pretty shaky in the Champions League and the Europa knockout playoff, conceding a total of 9.7 xG in those matches.
Sevilla also isn't facing a top-end offense like West Ham every weekend in Spain or in its UCL group stage.
On the other side, the Hammers did go through a bit of an offensive drought in January and early February, but have turned things around the last two matches, creating 1.9 xG against Wolves and 1.5 xG against Liverpool.
Even when you purely look at xGDiff for the season, Sevilla is at +6.6, while West Ham is at +3.3. Additionally, based on UEFA Coefficients, the Premier League is more difficult than La Liga as well.
I have this match projected close to Pick'em, so I like the value we're getting on West Ham at +0.5 on the Asian Handicap spread line at -125 odds via Caesars and will make it my top pick.
Pick: West Ham +0.5 (-125)
Braga vs. Monaco
| Braga Odds | +105 |
| Monaco Odds | +290 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+105 / +145) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here | |
Braga barely made it past Moldovan side FC Sheriff in the Europa League playoffs, needing a penalty kick shootout to move on.
The club struggling to breakdown a low block is nothing new because it was quite terrible offensively in the first leg in Moldova, losing 2-0 and creating only 0.7 xG on 11 shots.
Add that in that with the fact Braga is only averaging 1.52 xG per match in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, but only have created 3.27 xG in three matches versus Sporting Lisbon, Porto and Benfica. So, if that's any indication, this side is really going to struggle against the elite defense Monaco boasts.
Matheus = Braga's shoot-out hero 🧤@SCBragaOficial | #UELpic.twitter.com/PEqhYmugce
— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) March 2, 2022
Monaco is the best defense in France by a pretty considerable margin. The Ligue 1 stalwart is only conceding only 0.87 NPxG per match, 9.73 shot per 90 minutes and 20 big scoring chances in 27 matches.
Monaco is also the No. 1 pressing team in France by PPDA , plus it has forced the fifth-most high turnovers, per Opta. However, they haven't done anything with those turnovers and have the fifth-lowest shots off them.
On the flip side, its offense has been pretty pedestrian all season, creating only 1.22 NPxG, 11.19 shots per 90 minutes and 1.11 big scoring chances per match. Defensively, Braga has been very good, yielding 0.93 xG per game on the domestic front and 1.23 xG per outing in Europa League play.
I only have 2,17 goals projected for this meeting, so I like the value on the total staying under 2.5 goals at -125 odds on DraftKings and will make it my top selection.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
