Frankfurt vs. West Ham Odds
| Frankfurt Odds | +150 |
| West Ham Odds | +185 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
The second leg of the Europa League semifinal round takes place Thursday when Eintracht Frankfurt hosts West Ham United holding a 2-1 aggregate lead from last week's first leg in London.
Neither side is still in play for a spot in next year's Champions League via their respective league positions, so the stakes are even higher for this fixture.
Frankfurt scored in the first minute of its road leg, sat deeper and absorbed pressure from the Hammers. Even when West Ham found the equalizer, though, Frankfurt retook the lead in the second half and held it.
The second leg at home will be a bigger challenge for the German side, which has now taken out Real Betis and Barcelona to get to the semifinals. Its defense has struggled for most of the Bundesliga season and the West Ham defense has improved with the return of center back Kurt Zouma.
Frankfurt Defense Could Have More Issues
Eintracht Frankfurt ranks first in the German top flight in passes per defensive action, which is a measure of pressing intensity. The hosts press and like to win the ball high up the pitch to create chances via high turnovers, while the defense isn't set and scrambling to recover.
When Frankfurt does win the ball deep in its own area, Frankfurt doesn't waste much time getting the ball up the pitch. The club ranks fifth in direct attacking speed in Germany, which projects better away from home than when it expects to have more of the possession at home in a European tie.
Manager Oliver Glasner's side has struggled defensively from open play this season. While it's excellent on set pieces and rank fourth best at preventing chances from them, Frankfurt has the fifth-worst defense by expected goals allowed. And there's some regression coming. The club has conceded just 34 open play goals from almost 39 xGA despite mediocre goalkeeper play.
I'm not sure how long Frankfurt can continue to run this poorly in Germany — it's winless in five consecutive league matches — while also continuing to advance in the knockout stage. The result against West Ham away from home was impressive, but Frankfurt hasn't put in a truly great performance either, outside of one away day in Barcelona.
Value Sitting With Desperate West Ham
West Ham's biggest attacking advantage against most teams comes from set pieces, and that edge is pretty well neutralized by the strong defending of Frankfurt. Despite this, West Ham was able to create plenty of clear scoring chances worth about 2.1 xG on 15 shots in the first leg.
The Hammers have had problems when teams defend in a low block and force them to break them down, but that's certainly not the strength of Frankfurt given its usual pressing intensity. West Ham managed 33 progressive passes in the first leg to just 18 for Frankfurt.
Even though Frankfurt had more total pressures in the match, it was West Ham who was significantly more successful of pressing from the front in the Frankfurt attacking third.
West Ham is a team I've largely been betting against in the Premier League as it has been consistently overvalued and running well with chance conversion to sustain an otherwise mediocre attack. However, the pendulum has swung strongly against the Hammers in the market.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Game theory is always important to consider when betting a two-legged European semifinal. You should beware of the market overreacting motivation, but it's West Ham that will be pushing for the tying goal if this game is tied late and the visitors trails by one on aggregate.
Frankfurt is due for some defensive regression when you compare its numbers defensively to goals allowed, especially where it has just the 11th-best xGA numbers in Germany and allow a ton of crosses into the penalty area.
None of that is a recipe for a team I want to back as a favorite defending a lead in a European semifinal. As much as the Hammers might struggle to break down the low block, I trust the Frankfurt defense to stop crosses and big scoring chances even less.
We've seen how fragile Frankfurt is with a lead in its last two knockout games against Real Betis and Barcelona, and West Ham is more likely to force extra time by winning this match than it is to lose outright.
I'm taking West Ham on a Draw No Bet wager at +100 or better as my top pick.
Pick: West Ham — Draw No Bet (+100 or better)
