After two days of Champions League action, the Europa League kicks off the first legs of its quarterfinals on Thursday. Manchester United is the tournament favorite and the Red Devils are overwhelming favorites to advance against Sevilla over two legs. They're are also favored solidly to win the first leg at home on Thursday.
Juventus hosts Sporting Lisbon as one of the six Italian sides still active in European competitions. On the bottom half of the bracket, the surging German side, Bayer Leverkusen, hosts Union Saint-Gilloise. Dutch side Feyenoord hosts Roma in a rematch of the Europa Conference League Final from last season, which Roma won 1-0.
Here are my two favorite bets from Thursday's Europa League action:
Europa League Odds & Picks
Juventus vs Sporting Lisbon
| Juventus Odds | -120 |
| Sporting Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+130/ -163) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Sporting Lisbon has been consistently undervalued throughout European play. Their underlying numbers in Portugal are clearly lagging behind the two frontrunners, Porto and Benfica, but they've played the underdog role extremely well this season. Lisbon is quite comfortable playing in a mid block and counter approach and ceding a ton of defensive possession to their opponents. With Juventus being generally conservative in nature under Max Allegri, that should lead to few scoring chances at either end in this first leg. Lisbon beat Spurs at home, drew 1-1 in north London and also knocked out Arsenal over two legs in the last round of this competition.
Based on xG difference alone, Lisbon was unfortunate to not advance over Eintracht Frankfurt in their Champions League group. Juventus has had a very friendly draw thus far, beating a below average French side (Nantes) and an average Bundesliga team (Freiburg). Lisbon is considerably better than those two sides and Allegri's team is still riding its overrated defense. There's regression looming and the market is overrating Juventus with this line. I'd bet Sporting Lisbon +0.5 at -115 or better
Dabbundo's Pick: Sporting Lisbon +0.5 (-115 or better)
Manchester United vs Sevilla
| Manchester United Odds | -300 |
| Sevilla Odds | +700 |
| Draw | +380 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-132/ +108) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The biggest question facing Manchester United in this match is what the attack will look like without red-hot goal scorer Marcus Rashford. His injury in Saturday's win against Everton considerably lowers the output of this attack — especially when you consider that Wout Weghorst hasn't been producing many shots since joining United. Weghorst adds other possession value and links the play well, but his lacking shot output was offset by Rashford's red-hot shooting and finishing form. While the attacking output will be worse without Rashford, the Red Devils should be considerably improved in the midfield with both Fred and Casemiro fully available. The minutes where United had to play a midfield of Scott McTominay and Marcel Sabitzer didn't show well under any type of defensive pressure.
Sevilla has largely been a disaster throughout the season, yet the Europa League giants once again find themselves in the quarterfinals of Europe's second best competition. Sevilla is 16th in xG difference in La Liga, 13th in the table and really haven't deserved to get to this point when you consider that Fenerbahce and PSV Eindhoven considerably outplayed them on the aggregates over two legs.
I'm lower than the market on both teams in this matchup and expect a controlled United performance with their first choice midfield and defense fully available. I'd bet Both Teams to Score No at -130 or better.
Dabbundo's Pick: Both Teams to Score No (-130 or better)
