There may not have been much late drama in the Champions League the past two days with all four ties mostly decided in the first leg, but the Europa League quarterfinals are set up for tons of competitive fixtures on Thursday. Roma lost 1-0 on the road at Feyenoord, but Jose Mourinho's side returns home to the Italian capital and is favored to at least get the match into extra time as a -130 home moneyline favorite. Juventus scored late to beat Sporting Lisbon at home too, but Sporting returns home facing just the one goal deficit.
Bayer Leverkusen were expected to roll in their match at home against Union Saint-Gilloise, but the Belgian side held them to a 1-1 draw and now go home to Belgium. Leverkusen are still the favorite to advance to the semifinal, but only marginally as they are +100 moneyline favorites on the road. Manchester United entered the quarterfinals as the biggest favorite of them all, but Sevilla's two late goals in Manchester have the Red Devils on the ropes. Sevilla are tied 2-2 on aggregate and coming home.
Here are my two best bets for the Europa League second legs.
Europa League Odds & Picks
Sporting Lisbon vs Juventus
| Sporting Odds | +125 |
| Juventus Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+130 / -163) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
I bet Sporting Lisbon +0.5 in the first leg on the road in Turin and given how that match played out, I'd have bet it again. Sporting outplayed Juventus for large stretches of the match and created more chances. The final xG tally was 1.7 for Sporting to just 0.9 for Juventus.
Shots were 15-9 in favor of Sporting, the Portuguese side had more of the ball in dangerous areas, entered the penalty area more frequently and amassed more expected threat as well. Juventus' attack is still reliant heavily on crossing the ball into Dusan Vlahovic, but the Serbian striker has regressed this season and his goals have really dried up. It's not clear that Juventus will be able to sustain enough possession in the Sporting final third to use Vlahovic's biggest strengths as a target man in the center of the penalty area.
Federico Chiesa and Paul Pogba are both available for selection for manager Max Allegri, but I don't expect either to start. Juventus are likely to play a very pragmatic and defensive lineup on Thursday, but the first leg showed that Sporting are more than capable of creating chances. They played a somewhat rotated side in the Portuguese league over the weekend to ensure that some key players would be rested for this match as well.
Juventus' first choice goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny remains questionable to start and he's a major reason why Juventus have over-performed their xG in defense this season. With some better finishing variance, Sporting will win this match and force extra time at the worst. The market moved toward Juventus, but these two teams are comparable in true talent and thus Sporting should be more of a favorite than the market says at home. I'd bet Sporting ML at +110 or better.
Dabbundo's Pick: Sporting Lisbon ML +125 (+110 or better)
Roma vs Feyenoord
| Roma Odds | -120 |
| Feyenoord Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -138) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Betting an over in a Jose Mourinho knockout match is a difficult angle and approach, but the game state sets up for a back and forth affair in Rome. Feyenoord are not good enough defensively to come to Rome with the plan of holding onto a goalless draw for 90 minutes, and Roma have more than enough attacking talent to play their way back into the tie. Feyenoord's attack is often at its best when their wings are able to get into space to progress the ball forward and then eventually into the penalty area.
As good as Roma are defensively when protecting the lead and the penalty area, they lack true midfield ball winning and the defense can get exposed in transition when they're forced to commit more numbers forward. There was a total of 2.8 xG created in the first leg despite Roma coming in with a clear plan of playing for the goalless draw and in a conservative manner.
Once Roma went down the goal, they created multiple solid scoring chances. Mourinho's side has no choice but to chase the goal, and that creates a more open environment. The total is too low here given Feyenoord's attacking quality and defensive weaknesses.
Dabbundo's Pick: Over 2.5 (+120)
