The Europa League is back to fill your Thursday's with wall to wall action. It may be Europe's second tier competition, but that doesn't mean there isn't still a ton of drama and the prize at the end is incredibly valuable for the teams in this competition, as a spot in the Champions League next season is on the linne. The past three champions, Villarreal, Frankfurt and Sevilla, wouldn't have qualified for the Champions League if they didn't win this competition.
If you'd like to check out my Europa League Projections you can find them here. Now let's get into my Europa League picks.
| Servette Odds | +270 |
| Slavia Prague Odds | -105 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -116 / -106 |
Servette are one of the teams I am trying to fade in this competition.
They finished in second place in the Swiss Super League, but their underlying metrics are maybe to worst of anybody in this competition. For context, by UEFA coefficients Switzerland sits as the 12th-best league across Europe. Servette had a -0.01 xGD per 90 minutes. Not to mention last season they relied on experienced backline players Kevin Mbabu and Gael Clichy. They are now gone from the team.
image via footystats.org
Under their previous manager Alain Geiger they set up very direct out of a 4-2-3-1, using a lot of long balls up to the strikers, and quick counterattacks to create all of their chances. They are under a new manager in René Weiler ,who prefers to set up in a 4-4-2 and play just as direct as they've already been playing.
They are likely going to concede a lot of possession to their opponent in this match because Slavia Prague have a beautiful style of play that would see the likes of Manchester City or Barcelona play.
The Czech side plays a build up possession based style out of a 3-4-3 with an aggressive counter-press. It has allowed them to put some eye-popping numbers domestically this season. Unlike Servette, they have a lot of experience in European competitions. They have been in either the Champions League, Europa League or Europa Conference League for the past five seasons. Last year in the Europa Conference League they absolutely trucked everyone in their group, but they were incredibly unlucky not to get to the knockout stage.
image via fbref.com
Serbia is actually ranked 13th by UEFA coefficients, so there is a significant gap in the underlying metrics of these two clubs.
I have Slavia Prague projected as a -161 favorite, so I love the value on them to get all three points at +105.
Pick: Slavia Prague ML (+105 via BetMGM)
| Qarabag Odds | +140 |
| Molde Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
Qarabag are the top club out of Azerbaijan and have more Europa League experience than just about anybody. They have been either in the Champions League or Europa League in 10 of the last 11 seasons. They failed to make it out of a somewhat difficult group last season, but they were incredibly unlucky to do so, as they put up the best underlying metrics over Freiburg, Nantes and Olympiacos.
Having Europa League experience is so massive for these clubs that come from smaller countries because in their domestic leagues they are so used to dominating possession and often times when they face bigger sides they aren't used to defending out of possession in their own final third for a majority of the match. Qurban Qurbanov has been Qarabag's manager since 2008, so he is very experienced in these types of competitions playing the tactics that give them the best opportunity at advancing.
Molde are nearing the end of their domestic season, as Norway plays their season primarily during the summer. They are actually having a pretty bad season as they're currently sitting outside of the top three and only have a +0.53 xGD per 90 minutes.
The problem with Molde, and why they haven't been as dominant in years past, is because their 3-5-2 direct style was very reliant on one player, David Datro Fofana. The 20-year-old has blistering pace that allowed Molde to play a lot of long balls up to him and he would just blow by defenders in the Norwegian league.
He was sold to Chelsea during the January transfer window last year and subsequently has made a loan move to Union Berlin. With Fofana as one of their two strikers during the 2022 season, Molde averaged 1.97 xG per 90 minutes, but now they're only averaging 1.73 xG per 90 minutes. Now their transitions are a lot slower because they don't have some with great pace to get in behind opposing defenses.
In terms of travel, this a long road trip for Molde, going over 4,000 kilometers to Baku.
I have Qarabag projected as a +103 favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet at -126.
