It's time for match week 3 of the new Europa League season. The format is different this year as the group format has been scrapped for a league phase mirroring the exact format of the Champions League.
There will be 18 matches in total played on Thursday, meaning there will be wall-to-wall action starting at 12:45 p.m. ET, including Fenerbahce vs. Man United.
I'm here with my Europa League picks and predictions, including my best bets.
Europa League Picks, Predictions
Click on the link in each pick below to go directly to my analysis on my Europa League predictions and best bets.
- PAOK vs. Viktoria Plzen pick: Viktoria Plzen +0.5
- Fenerbahce vs. Man United pick: Fenerbahce – Draw No Bet
- Anderlecht vs. Ludogorets pick: Ludogorets +0.5
Always shop around for the best lines when making your bets by using our live soccer odds page.
Make sure to follow all of our Europa League coverage throughout the season here and on Youtube, and make sure to subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast for episodes all season long. Also if you like to see my projections for every Europa League match you can find them here.
PAOK vs. Viktoria Plzen Pick
- PAOK vs. Viktoria Plzen odds: PAOK -112, Viktoria Plzen +300, Draw +260
This line should be projected closer to a pick'em.
PAOK came into the season having lost both of their starting center backs in the transfer window and things have not gone well for them defensively so far. They are sitting at the top of the Greek Super League table, but their underlying number are not dominant at all, as they only have a +0.38 xGD per 90 minutes. They drew both of their two biggest matches domestically against Panathinaikos and AEK Athens, so they have been simply beating up on teams in the bottom half of the table.
They got hammered in their first match against Galatasaray, conceding three goals and 2.4 expected goals, and then they got caught on the wrong side of variance against FCSB. Viktoria Plzen have drawn their first two matches and looked pretty impressive in the process. They scored two late goals to draw with a good Frankfurt side and then drew Ludogorets at home.
Both of these teams made deep runs to the quarterfinals of the Europa Conference League last season, but it was Viktoria Plzen who had the better underlying metrics and actually hammered Dinamo Zagreb, which is the team PAOK played in the knockout stage and needed to come from behind to beat.
I have this match projected very close to a pick'em, so I like the value on Viktoria Plzen +0.5 at -102.
Europa League Prediction: Viktoria Plzen +0.5 (-102 via bet365)
Fenerbahce vs. Man United Prediction
- Fenerbahce vs. Man United odds: Fenerbahce +190, Man United +130, Draw +260
It's very poetic that Erik Ten Hag's job is on the line and former Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho could be the one to deliver the final blow. Things haven't been going great so far for Mourinho in Turkey from a results point of view, but the underlying numbers have been really impressive as they also are under Mourinho coached teams.
Fenerbahce have a +0.55 xGD per 90 minutes through their first eight matches in the Turkish Super Lig and they completely dominated Galatasaray about a month ago, creating 3.28 expected goals to Galatasaray's 1.55 in a 3-1 defeat. There is also talent littered all over this squad, especially in attack with the likes of Allan Saint Maximin, Youssef En-Nesyri, Edin Dzeko and Sebastian Szymański. Not to mention, their midfield is anchored by two former Manchester United players Fred and Sofyan Amrabat.
Manchester United are having a lot of issues out of possession because their press is connected as it should be. In the second half against Brentford they went full man to man and it worked, but consistently being able to do that has been the problem and that comes down to coaching. So far this season United's defensive numbers have not improved as they are allowing 1.52 expected goals per 90 minutes, so they really shouldn't be favorites in this game.
Really the only teams that Manchester United have consistently created chances against are teams that will come out and press them high or play a high defensive line. Jose Mourinho is not going to do that because he is from the school of low block counterattacking football. Guess what team they already played in the Europa League that plays the same exact style? Porto, and they needed a late goal just to draw them 3-3.
I have Fenerbahce projected as a favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet.
Europa League Pick: Fenerbahce – Draw No Bet (+110 via bet365)
My Europa League Pick for Anderlecht vs. Ludogorets
- Anderlecht vs. Ludogorets odds: Anderlecht -134, Ludogorets +375, Draw +260
Anderlecht's underlying metrics compared to their actual results tell two completely different stories. In the Belgian Pro League this season they have only conceded 10 goals, but they have conceded 17.7 expected goals. They have a negative expected goal differential, sitting in sixth place, but this is nothing new because they have been over-performing for the better part of a year now.
Last season in the Belgian Pro League they had a +26 goal differential compared to only a +11.2 expected goal differential, and they over-performed offensively by about 10 goals. In their first match in the Europa League they played up a man for most of the second half and needed a penalty to win the xG battle against Ferencvaros. They then did beat Real Sociedad 2-1 on the road despite only creating 0.9 expected goals and not creating a single chance with an xG rating over 0.20.
Ludogorets have a lot of European experience. They have been in either the Champions League, Europa League or Europa Conference League since 2016 and they actually took Anderlecht to penalties in the knockout round of the Europa Conference League in 2023. They've actually been pretty impressive through their first two matches, playing Slavia Prague and Viktoria Plzen pretty much dead even, and they have been dominating in their domestic league, scoring 16 goals and only conceding once.
Given how bad Anderlecht's underlying metrics are, there is no reason they should be this big of a favorite, so I like the value on Ludogorets +0.5 at +107.
Best Bet: Ludogorets +0.5 (+107 via bet365)
