It's time for match week 1 of the new Europa League season. The format is different this year as the group format has been scrapped for a league phase mirroring the exact format of the Champions League.
There will be 18 matches in total with nine being played on Wednesday and the other nine of Thursday, meaning there will be wall-to-wall action for the 3 p.m. ET window, including Man United vs. Twente and Lyon vs. Olympiacos.
I'm here with my Europa League picks and predictions, including my best bets for soccer picks.
Europa League Picks, Predictions
Click on the link in each pick below to go directly to my analysis on my Europa League predictions and best bets.
- Midtjylland vs. Hoffenheim pick: Midtjylland Draw no Bet
- Man United vs. Twente pick: Both Teams to Score
- Lyon vs. Olympiacos pick: Over 2.5 goals
Always shop around for the best lines when making your bets by using our live soccer odds page.
Make sure to follow all of our Europa League coverage throughout the season here and on Youtube, and make sure to subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast for episodes all season long. Also if you like to see my projections for every Europa League match you can find them here.
Midtjylland vs. Hoffenhiem Pick
- Midtjylland vs. Hoffenheim odds: Midtjylland +130, Hoffenheim +180, Draw +290
In terms of spots, it doesn't get any better of Midtjylland given the injury situation at Hoffenheim. Coming into this match, Hoffenheim could be without five of their usual starters and the injuries have taken a toll on their Bundesliga form, as they have lost three straight matches to Frankfurt, Leverkusen and Union Berlin. Now they have to travel to take on a red hot Midtjylland side who are playing much better under new manager Thomas Thomasberg.
Thomasberg switched Midtjylland back to the basics. They now play out of a 4-4-2 and put a big time emphasis on being solid defensively, which has improved their underlying defensive numbers. What makes them dangerous playing out of a 4-4-2 is their ability to hit teams in transition. So far in the Danish Superliga, they are averaging 1.98 xG per 90 minutes and are coming off a big win versus Copenhagen.
Those transition breaks are going to be key in this match because of Hoffenheim's set up defensively. They don't typically press in the same manner as a lot of German teams, but they will counterpress aggressively when they lose the ball high up the pitch, giving Midtjylland chances on the counterattack to cause a lot of problems.
Midtjylland were busy in the transfer market this summer, bringing in a lot of experience in the attack with the likes of Jan Kuchta from Sparta Prague and Adam Buska from Lens. It has already improved their offensive numbers from last season.
With the injury situation for Hoffenheim, I think there is some value on the home side.
Pick: Midtjylland – Draw No Bet (-133 via bet365)
Man United vs. Twente Prediction
- Manchester United vs. Twente odds: Manchester United -300, Twente +700, Draw +475
Manchester United had one of their best performances of the season against Crystal Palace on Saturday, but I would expect some squad rotation here against Twente with Tottenham on deck on Sunday. With that being said, they still have a long ways to go, especially out of possession, to be considered elite.
While the press has been better and they are not only pressing with only their attackers to begin the season, they still are conceding chances, especially in transition. Through five Premier League matches, United have only held their opponents under one expected goal once despite holding a lot of possession. Twente had really good underlying numbers in the Eredivisie last season and early in this year are averaging 2.34 xG per 90 minutes. More importantly, they are the type of team that can give Manchester United problems.
If you think about the teams that have been able to cause problems for United, it's teams that can quickly transition the ball with vertical passes to open up their defense. Both Liverpool and Brighton were able to do it with a lot of success, which is exactly how Twente plays. Under Joseph Oosting, Twente are always looking to play through balls in behind and are really aggressive with their passing. The worst thing you can do versus United is let them get into settled defense and Twente are not going to let that happen.
While United still have some defensive issues, their offense has been miles better than last year. They are starting to control matches better because of stability at the centerback position, fullbacks are able to invert and Joshua Zirkzee is able to drop deep and link the play, which has created space for Fernandes and Rashford to operate.
Joseph Oosting and Erik Ten Haag have met twice before when Oosting was at RKC Waalwijk and Ten Hag was at Ajax during the 2021-22 season. Ajax blew them out in both meetings, but Oosting's Waalwijk team did created one expected goal in both meetings.
I have BTTS projected closer to -140, so I like the value on the current line of -115.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-115 via bet365)
My Europa League Pick for Lyon vs. Olympiacos
- Lyon vs. Olympiacos odds: Lyon -118, Olympiacos +300, Draw +270
Lyon have been playing some crazy matches this season, as their first five Ligue 1 matches have seen an average of 3.47 expected goals. That is nothing new though, as they've been playing a lot of high-event matches ever since Pierre Sage took over as manager. He took over on November 30th of 2023 and since that point, only PSG have created more expected goals than Lyon.
The reason for that is because Sage changed the entire identity of Lyon's attack, as he wants them to play as fast and direct as possible when they have the ball, resembling a lot of Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool. Sage even said himself that he wants his team to, "stop playing the cello and start playing the electric guitar." Clearly it's working with the crazy underlying numbers that Lyon are putting up.
However, when you play that aggressively in possession and are always looking to break in transition, you leave yourself vulnerable to counterattacks. In addition to that, Lyon also press high in a very aggressive manner, which leaves them exposed once teams are able to beat the first line of pressure. In the 26 Ligue 1 matches that Sage has been in charge, Lyon are allowing 1.65 xG per 90 minutes. If you watched Olympiacos during their run to a Europa Conference League title last season you'll know how effective they are in transition moments.
So, I think this one gets off the rails and given Lyon's style of play under Sage.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-110 via bet365)