It's time for match week 2 of the new Europa League season. The format is different this year as the group format has been scrapped for a league phase mirroring the exact format of the Champions League.
There will be 18 matches in total played on Thursday, meaning there will be wall-to-wall action for the 3 p.m. ET window, including Porto vs. Manchester United and Rangers vs. Lyon.
I'm here with my Europa League picks and predictions, including my best bets for soccer picks.
Europa League Picks, Predictions
Click on the link in each pick below to go directly to my analysis on my Europa League predictions and best bets.
- Elfsborg vs. Roma pick: Roma ML
- Porto vs. Manchester United pick: Porto Draw no Bet
- Rangers vs. Lyon pick: Over 2.5 goals
Always shop around for the best lines when making your bets by using our live soccer odds page.
Make sure to follow all of our Europa League coverage throughout the season here and on Youtube, and make sure to subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast for episodes all season long. Also if you like to see my projections for every Europa League match you can find them here.
Elfsborg vs. Roma Pick
- Elfsborg vs. Roma odds: Elfsborg +320, Roma -120, Draw +280
Elfsborg lost their opening Europa League match to AZ Alkmaar 3-2, but the box score was not pretty. They were outshot in the match 17 to 3 and lost the expected goals battle 2.7 to 0.10. The problem they are going to run into in the Europa League is their talent level is so much less than a lot of the opponents they are going to face. Per transfermarkt.com, Elfsborg only have a total squad transfer value on $23.3 million, which is far less when compare it to their opponents, who are at $338.5 million.
Roma have had an interesting start to the season, sacking club legend Francisco Totti only a few matches into the year, but they replaced him with a really good manager in Ivan Juric. Juric was the manager of Torino for the past three years. Torino finished in 10th place, but they did under-perform, as they had a +8.3 xGD, which was better than teams like Lazio, Roma and Fiorentina.
I think this line is too low for Roma because there is a very clear talent gap. In addition to that, Elfsborg's underlying metrics domestically in Sweden aren't all that impressive at +0.44 xGD per 90 minutes. In addition to that, right in the middle of their season they lost their best defender and starting goalkeeper, so what happened in their first match against Alkmaar is going to pretty much be the norm every single week in the Europa League when they have to play some of the bigger teams.
I have Roma projected at -163, so I like the value on them at -120.
Pick: Roma ML (-120 via ESPNBet)
Porto vs. Man United Prediction
- Porto vs. Manchester United odds: Porto +155, Manchester United +162, Draw +240
You can blame the Bruno Fernandes red card for Manchester United's performance against Tottenham on Sunday, but in my opinion it goes much deeper than that. The defensive structure has been the big issue for Erik Ten Hag over the past year and a half, as not only has United's press not been effective, but when they try to sit off in their defensive structure they are simply allowing way too much space, which is why teams have been able to play right through them. Before Fernandes got the red card in the 42nd minute, Manchester United had already conceded 12 shots and 1.99 expected goals.
Really the only teams that Manchester United have consistently created chances against are teams that will come out and press them high or play a high defensive line. Porto are going to do neither of those things and are going to make life incredibly difficult for Manchester United when they have the ball. They held Arsenal to a total of 1.3 expected goals in the round of 16 of the Champions League last season by playing in a very passive compact defensive shape, refusing to let the Gunners play through the middle.
Porto's assistant for the last seven seasons, Vítor Bruno, has been promoted to manager, so things are not going to change tactically for them. There is a ton of talent throughout the squad, as their total squad transfer value is $337.25 million, per transfermarket.com. They brought in Samu Omorodion from Ateltico Madrid. He's a really talented young striker and replaced Evanilson, who left for Bournemouth.
Porto are a very difficult team to beat at home, as they've won five of their last seven matches in Portugal in European competitions. They can expose Manchester United in direct counterattacking opportunities and are always dangerous on set pieces, which United have been very average at defending under Ten Hag.
I have Porto projected at +114, so I like the value on them draw no bet at -110.
Pick: Porto – Draw No Bet (-110 via bet365)
My Europa League Pick for Rangers vs. Lyon
- Rangers vs. Lyon odds: Rangers +145, Lyon +170, Draw +250
Lyon's first Europa League match against Olympiacos may have only ended with two goals, but there were 2.8 expected goals created in the match and they were playing a team that was playing very deep defensively. Even with that result, Lyon have been playing a lot of high-event matches ever since Pierre Sage took over as manager. He took over on November 30th of 2023 and since that point only PSG have created more expected goals than Lyon.
The reason for that is because Sage changed the entire identity of Lyon's attack, as he wants them to play as fast and direct as possible when they have the ball. With the additions that Lyon made over the summer, bringing in Ernest Nuamah and Georges Mikautadze, it has made them even more dangerous offensively, as Lyon are averaging 1.49 xG per 90 minutes in Ligue 1.
However, when you play that aggressively in possession and are always looking to break in transition, you leave yourself vulnerable to counterattacks. In addition to that, Lyon also press high in a very aggressive manner, which leaves them exposed once teams are able to beat the first line of pressure. Rangers took an early lead against Malmo and consistently were looking dangerous on the counter. They ended up taking 17 shots and creating 2.6 expected goals, basically all off of transition breaks.
With how both of these teams want to play, this sets up for a very back and forth type of encounter, so I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-110 via bet365)
