The Europa League is back to fill your Thursdays with wall-to-wall soccer action.
It may be Europe's second-tier competition, but that doesn't mean there isn't still a ton of drama and the prize at the end is incredibly valuable for the teams in this competition, as a spot in the Champions League next season is on the line. The past three champions – Villarreal, Frankfurt and Sevilla – wouldn't have qualified for the Champions League if they didn't win this competition.
If you'd like to check out my Europa League Projections, you can find them here. Let's get into my Europa League predictions, featuring Marseille vs Ajax and Toulouse vs Union St. Gilloise.
| Marseille Odds | -167 |
| Ajax Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
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Marseille are in crisis mode at the moment. They are currently sitting 13th in the Ligue 1 table and are only three points above the drop zone. They are also still trying to figure things out under new manager Gennaro Gattuso. They do have a +2.5 npxGD in his six Ligue 1 matches in charge, but recent matches against Lille, Lens and Strasbourg, where the xG battle was dead even, shows that they are nowhere near completely turning around this bad run of form.
Gattuso is an interesting manager tactically because of how he wants his teams to set up. He's very similar to that of Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton where they will invite the opposing team to press and then find the open man to eventually play right through the opponents. Offensively they've only created 3.2 xG in their last three Ligue 1 matches, so there is some cause for concern.
The biggest concern right now is their ability to play through pressure, which is problem when you are inviting the opponent to press you. Marseille are 12th in offensive PPDA and eighth in buildup competition percentage, while Ajax are definitely going to press them high, so they might be turning the ball over one too many times, which can lead to some transition attacks for Ajax.
Ajax hit rock bottom after the 5-2 thrashing at the hands of PSV. They fired their manager and since that moment, they have been improving to the point where this is a good buy low spot. They've put up 11.4 xG in their last four Eredivisie matches and even created 2.5 xG against PSV.
Their last two performances against Brighton, even though they lost both, they showed that they can sit in a defensive block and be effective. They only conceded 2.3 xG over the two meetings and did a really good job of limiting Brighton's central progression. Ajax are also loaded with attacking talent that can give Marseille all sorts of problems, just like they did in the previous 3-3 thriller, which was a very even match on xG.
I only have Marseille projected at -106, so I like the value on Ajax +1 at -119.
Pick: Ajax +1 (-119 via bet365)
| Toulouse Odds | +125 |
| Union St. Gilloise Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
I really think Union St. Gilloise should be a pretty sizable favorite here on the road. First off, the way this group sets up, Union St. Gilloise have to host Liverpool on the final day and are three points behind Toulouse, so they absolutely need all three points here on the road, while Toulouse could be into the knockout playoff round with a draw in this match and if Liverpool beat LASK.
Union St. Gilloise are flying in Belgium right now. They are sitting atop the table with a +1.36 xGD per 90 minutes. They play out of a either a 3-5-2 or 3-4-1-2 under manager Alexander Blessin, but the principles stay the same. He wants them to counterpress intensely to try to win the ball back to create a transition opportunity. They've done it to great success in Belgium, creating 2.2 xG per 90 minutes, but it hasn't really translated to the Europa League.
They are not a team that is comfortable having a large share of the possession. They are at their best when they are playing primarily in transition, hence why they play out of a 3-5-2, which allows them to have numerical advantages centrally, while also getting wingbacks in 1 v 1 situations out wide.
In the first meeting against Toulouse, Union St. Gilloise was by far the better side. The final xG was Toulouse 1.4 to Union St. Gilloise 1.3, but Toulouse were aided a penalty in first half and basically did nothing from open play. Union St. Gilloise had 21 box entries compared to just nine for Toulouse and out touched them in the penalty area 32 to 12.
Toulouse are one of the worst defensive teams in France right now. They are conceding 1.79 xG per 90 minutes, which is second to last in Ligue 1.
Toulouse's formations changed to a more defensive approach against Liverpool in their last two matches, but they set up in their normal aggressive formation the last time they player Union St. Gilloise. Toulouse are mainly a transition-based team holding only 48% on average in Ligue 1, which is going to create a very up and down type match. The problem is Toulouse are without one on of their best attackers, Zakaria Aboukhlal, who led the team last year with a 0.42 xG per 90 minute scoring rate.
Given the fact that Toulouse likely only need a draw and they are through combined with the fact that Union St. Gilloise were the better side in the first meeting, I think it's a bit crazy they are this significant of favorites.
I have Union St. Gilloise projected as a road favorite in this match, so I like the value on them +0.5 at -139.
