The Europa League is back to fill your Thursdays with wall-to-wall soccer action.
It may be Europe's second-tier competition, but that doesn't mean there isn't still a ton of drama and the prize at the end is incredibly valuable for the teams in this competition, as a spot in the Champions League next season is on the line. The past three champions – Villarreal, Frankfurt and Sevilla – wouldn't have qualified for the Champions League if they didn't win this competition.
If you'd like to check out my Europa League Projections, you can find them here. Let's get into my Europa League predictions, featuring Toulouse vs Liverpool and West Ham vs Olympiacos.
| Toulouse Odds | +500 |
| Liverpool Odds | -225 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
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The Liverpool offense is maybe the best in the world right now and the best part about it is they have a crazy amount of depth. In this match a few weeks ago, Mohamed Salah was rested and Liverpool still scored five goals and put up almost 3 xG.
The reason Liverpool have improved so much is the introduction of Gravenberch into the starting XI. Gravenberch didn't get much playing time at Bayern Munich because he was behind Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka, but he is really the dream number eight for Liverpool's 4-3-3. His ability to be a ball stopper for transition attacks, but also attack the box, has been incredible revelation for Jurgen Klopp. Having him with Trent Alexander-Arnold inverting into the middle of the pitch allows Liverpool to overload the last line of defense and create a boatload of chances inside the box. The second goal against Toulouse is a perfect example of that.
Wataru Endō heads home his first goal for Liverpool 💥 pic.twitter.com/qF2MhZnwlM
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 26, 2023
However, the problem with Liverpool is still in transition defense. Because Alexander-Arnold inverts when they are in possession, and because he is not a good ball stopper, it leaves Liverpool very exposed to transition attacks, which is how Toulouse scored their only goal in this match.
Toulouse are one of the worst defensive teams in France right now and they could very easily concede five goals again here at home. In Ligue 1, they have only held one opponent under 1 xG, Metz, who are the worst offensive team in France. Through 11 matches their defense has conceded 19.8 xG.
They've set up in a 4-3-3 in their last two matches, but against Liverpool they were clearly trying to set up more defensive by playing a 5-3-2. That was the plan, until Jota scored a goal inside the first 10 minutes and then they had to be more aggressive. Toulouse are mainly a transition-based team holding only 48% on average in Ligue 1, which was successful on multiple occasions in the first leg in Anfield.
There were 4 xG created in the first match between these two and with how bad Toulouse's defense is, there is no reason why we won't see another high scoring affair in France.
I have 3.99 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over at +122. Additionally, Gravenberch is unlikely to play in this fixture, exposing Liverpool further in transition defense.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+122 via FanDuel)
| West Ham Odds | -150 |
| Olympiacos Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
The betting market is still clearly in love with West Ham because this price is a little crazy.
Olympiacos won the first leg 2-1 in Greece in what was a pretty even match. West Ham ended up controlling 56% of the possession, expected goals was 1.0 to 0.9 in favor of Olympiacos, and they outshot the Hammers 15 to 12.
Diego Martinez is a manager that wants his teams to be aggressive with their counter-pressing to put pressure on opponents who are building out of the back. They've done that to great success in Greece this season putting up a +1.10 xGD per 90 minutes through their first 10 matches domestically.
The talent level of this team is pretty high as well because they have a $101 million total squad transfer value, per transfermarkt.com. They have some names you might recognize, like former Wolves winger Daniel Podence and former Manchester City and Inter striker Stevan Jovetic.
West Ham have flat out been bad defensively. David Moyes is playing an extreme low block out of possession and teams are creating chance after chance against it. The thing is, their low block has been effective early on in games, but the Hammers tire out as the match goes along because when you spend a majority of the match man marking runners and defending in your own end of the pitch it can get exhausting.
West Ham are allowing 1.87 xG per 90 minutes in the Premier League, the most box entries and the third-highest xThreat, which doesn't allow them to profile well as a favorite.
With West Ham being at home, they are likely going to be holding a majority of the possession, which is not something they are comfortable doing. West Ham are at their best when they are playing in transition, but if Olympiacos sit off like they did in the first match, I find it hard to believe that West Ham are going to be successful offensively to get margin in this match.
I only have West Ham projected at -115, so I love the value on Olympiacos +1 at -121.
