European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, More (April 8-11)

While the title races in Germany, Spain and France all but wrapped up, there is plenty of drama in Serie A, with AC Milan, Napoli and Inter Milan separated by just four points after AC Milan dropped points Monday at home to Bologna.

This weekend, there are no big-time matches outside of the Premier League, but that doesn't mean there isn't a lot of excitement and potential upsets on the horizon.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga Projections

Best Bet

Hertha Berlin vs. Union Berlin

Hertha Berlin, which is one of the worst teams in the Bundesliga, is in danger of being relegated. So far, the club has a -21.1 xGDiff in 28 matches and has been in horrific form with just five points in its last 11 matches. Now, Hertha gets to take on inner-city rival Union Berlin in their latest derby. 

There are a ton of edges for Union. First, the side has a good defense, ranking inside the top seven in big scoring chances allowed, shots conceded per 90 minutes and box entries yielded. On the other side, Hertha is only averaging 1.02 xG per match and has eight big scoring chances since the start of 2022.

As for Union, the club doesn’t generate a lot of shots, as it's 14th in shot per 90 minutes. However, what it does well is complete crosses into the penalty area, as its averaging 3.64/90 minutes, leading the league, per fbref.com.

Hertha is allowing the third-most crosses to be completed into own penalty area, plus it's conceding the second-most big scoring chances in the Bundesliga. Union creates the sixth-most big scoring chances, so I have no doubt it will have plenty of high-quality chances.

Motivation could be a factor for Union as well. It's comfortably in the middle of the table with no real shot at a top-six finish. However, don’t you think the side will relish in the chance to sink its rival further into the relegation battle?

I have Union Berlin projected as a -102 moneyline road favorite, so I love the club via the Draw No Bet wager at -120 odds and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Union Berlin — Draw No Bet (-120)

Serie A Projections

Best Bet

Napoli vs. Fiorentina

Two of the best defenses in the Italy square off in what should be a very low-event match. Napoli is only allowing 0.74 npxG per game, while Fiorentina is conceding just 1.07 NPxG per match, per fbref.com.

Napoli is No. 1 in Italy in xGA, big scoring chances conceded and second in cross completed into their own penalty area, which is key against Fiorentina. That club completes the third-most crosses in Italian top flight, per fbref.com

On the other hand, Fiorentina is tops in shots allowed per 90 minutes and box entries conceded. That’s big against Napoli, which are top five in those categories.

The pace of this match should also be incredibly slow as well. Napoli leads Serie A in terms of 10-plus pass sequences and build-up attacks, while Fiorentina is top five in both  categories as well.

these defenses are first and second in terms of pressure success rate, so I find it hard to believe there will be a lot of high-quality chances in this match.

I only have 1.97 goals projected for this contest, so I like the value we're getting on the total staying under 2.5 goals at -105 odds.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-105)

La Liga Projections

Best Bet

Osasuna vs. Alavés

Offensively, Osasuna has been in terrible form for a long time now.

The side is now 17th in NPxG, averaging just 0.83 per match. However, its defense has been really good when it doesn't have to face a top-four club. In 23 matches against the rest of the table, Osasuna is allowing 1.07 xG per tilt.

Now enters one of the worst offenses in the league, as Alavés has only created more than one xG four times in its last 16 matches, per fbref.com.

When these two met earlier this season, it was a low-event match with Osasuna earning a 2-0 win. Only 1.5 total xG, 39 total touches in the penalty area and only 19 box entries were generated in the contest. 

The wager for Both Teams to Score in Osasuna matches has hit in just 14 of its 30 games, but more importantly, both teams have created at least one xG in just 11 of their 30 matches.

I have the BTTS (No) projected at -166, so I like the value on the current line of -135 odds ahead of this clash.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-135)

Ligue 1 Projections

Best Bet

Strasbourg vs. Lyon

Strasbourg is still fighting for a top-three spot in Ligue 1 action, as it's only two points behind Rennes. And guess what? The club absolutely deserves to be there. For the season, Strasbourg is fourth in the French top flight with a +14.7 xGDiff and has been one of the best teams at home. Strasbourg has a +0.82 xGDiff per 90 minutes and averages 1.75 xG per games at Stade de la Meinau.

The main reason the side has been so prolific on offense is because it is third in France in big scoring chances (44) on the season. A lot of those big scoring chances come from its wingbacks getting up the pitch, supplying crosses into the penalty area, as Strasbourg has completed the second most in the league.

Lyon is 17th in big scoring chances allowed and 13th in crosses conceded into its penalty area, per fbref.com. So, Strasbourg should have no trouble creating high-quality chances in this contest.

Lyon’s form has improved through a difficult part of its schedule, but overall, it has struggled away from home, putting up a -4 xGDiff overall. Strasbourg is also a top-five defense in terms of xGA, shots allowed per 90 minutes and box entries yielded.

That said, this is a difficult spot for Lyon, which had a Europa League match in London on Thursday against West Ham United, so Strasbourg will also have the rest advantage.

I have Strasbourg projected as a +118 home ML favorite, so I love the side via the Draw No Bet wager at -130 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Strasbourg — Draw No Bet (-130)