European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, More (Nov. 26-29)

There wasn't much drama outside of the Premier League this past weekend besides a massive upset in Germany, as Augsburg held on to beat Bayern Munich in a 2-1 shocker, which marked the global power's first loss in the Bundesliga since an Oct. 3 setback.

This weekend's card is headlined by big-time clashes including: Real Madrid vs. Sevilla, Villarreal vs. Barcelona, RB Leipzig vs. Bayer Leverkusen, Juventus vs. Atalanta and Napoli vs. Lazio to name a few of them.

Even though we're only a quarter of a way through the season, the Italian,  Spanish and German first divisions look completely up for grabs, while Ligue 1 powerhouse Paris Saint-Germain looks like it's running away in the French top flight.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga Projections

Best Bets

Bochum vs. Freiburg

Bochum hasn't been good defensively at all this season, allowing 1.92 expected goals per match. They’re also 11th in shots allowed per 90 minutes; 15th in big scoring chances allowed; and 15th in box entries conceded.

On the other side, Freiburg has had a resurgent season. I know they just suffered a 2-0 loss against Eintracht Frankfurt, but they’re in third place and are averaging 1.55 xG per match. That's an improvement from last season when they averaged 1.32 xG per outing. The thing about Freiburg is they’ve had the same manager for more than a decade and typically play out of a 3-4-3 formation, which has become very conducive to high-scoring matches. 

When Freiburg is playing out of the 3-4-3 this season, they’re averaging 1.57 xG per 90 minutes and allowing 1.69 xG per game. Their front three has been playing together for a while, with all players averaging more than 0.30 xG per 90 minutes. So, they should be able to create a lot of chances against a defense as bad as the one Bochum possesses.

On the flip side, Bochum offensively is not good, as they’re 13th in NPxG and 17th in big scoring chances. However, Freiburg is 12th in shots allowed per 90 minutes; 14th in box entries allowed; and, allows 1.66 xG per match away from home this season. 

I have 2.94 goals projected for this game, so I think there's value on the total over 2.5 goals at -110 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-105)

RB Leipzig vs. Leverkusen

RB Leipzig has struggled this season under new manager Jesse Marsch, but a lot of their problems have come on the defensive side of the ball, where they're still breaking in two new center backs.

The Red Bulls' offense that we're all accustomed to seeing is still playing at an elite level. The Red Bulls are averaging 2.08 xG per match, 24 big scoring chances and 16.25 box entries, which are all second in the Bundesliga behind only Bayern Munich. 

Now, they'll be facing a Bayer Leverkusen defense allowing their opponents to create a ton of chances. Leverkusen is allowing 1.46 xG per match, ranks 17th in shots allowed per 90 minutes and 15th in box entries allowed. 

In contrast, Leverkusen is one of the most overrated sides in Europe. So far in the Bundesliga this season, Leverkusen has scored 25 goals off of 17.58 expected goals. They're also 15th in shots per 90 minutes; 12th in big scoring chances; and, 17th in crosses completed into the penalty area. So, it's safe to say they're due for some negative regression.

RB Leipzig are also much better at home than on the road, boasting a +4.17 NPxGD at Red Bull Arena versus a +0.22 NPxGD on the road.

I have RB Leipzig projected at -152, so I think there's plenty of value on them at -115 odds at home to grab all three points.

Pick: RB Leipzig ML (-115)

Serie A Projections

Best Bets

Empoli vs. Fiorentina

Fiorentina continues to be one of the more overrated teams in Europe. Sure, they're currently sitting seventh with a -0.65 NPxGDiff in the Italian top flight. However, the main reason for that is because they've scored 20 goals, but only 11 of them have come from open play. They've only created 12.35 NPxG through 13 matches, though.

Their road results have also been really bad, as they have a -3.65 NPxGDiff in only six matches. In fact, they've only created more than 1.00 xG twice in their six road matches this season.

Empoli hasn't been great in their first season since promotion, especially on the defensive side. They're allowing 1.69 NPxG; rank 18th in shots allowed per 90 minutes; and, sit dead last in box entries allowed, per fbref.com. However, Fiorentina is 13th in NPxG and 18th in big scoring chances, so this isn't going to be Fiorentina cruising to victory.

I think Fiorentina is wildly overvalued in this spot. I have them projected at +181 odds, so I love Empoli +0.5 at -125 on DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Empoli +0.5 (-125)

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Udinese vs. Genoa

Once again, Udinese is underperforming their actual results, which was the case last season as well. They’re currently sitting in 15th place with a -0.10 NPxGD, which is 10th in Serie A. They've had to play a gauntlet of a schedule so far which has included Juventus, Roma, Napoli, Inter Milan and Atalanta.

So, having an even NPxGD through 12 matches is quite impressive. In their five games against teams in the bottom half of the table, Udinese is 3-1-1 overall, averaging 1.93 xG per outing and only allowing 1.17 xG per contest. 

Now, they will be facing a Genoa side that's currently in the relegation zone and deserves to be there given how bad their offense has been. Genoa is averaging 0.93 NPxG per match, ranking 18th in big scoring chances, 15th in shots per 90 minutes and 18th in box entries. Also, Genoa is 19th in pressure success rate allowed and Udinese presses at the fourth-highest rate in the league.

Genoa also has a new manager in Andriy Shevchenko, who is also leading the Ukrainian national team. However, he could be without four starters Sunday including star striker Mattia Destro.

I have Udinese projected at -135, so I think there's some value on them at -120 odds on DraftKings in this matchup.

Pick: Udinese ML (-120)

La Liga Projections

Best Bets

Real Madrid vs. Sevilla

Real Madrid has been the best offensive team in Spain thus far. They're first in NPxG, shots per 90 minutes, big scoring chances and box entries. However, this is probably the best defense they’ve faced all season during La Liga play and Sevilla has given them fits in the past.

During the previous campaign, Real Madrid won the away leg and drew 2-2 at home with Sevilla, but the xG were pretty even. Sevilla only allowed 2.5 xG total over the two legs. 

Through 13 matches Sevilla has a +10.18 NPxGDiff, which is second behind only Real Madrid in the Spanish top flight. They’re only conceding 0.73 NPxG per match, and sits second in shots allowed per 90 and big scoring chances allowed. On the other side offensively, Sevilla is second in NPxG, third in shots per 90 and second in big scoring chances.

The Real Madrid defense hasn't been great at all. In fact, it has been quite below average. Real Madrid is allowing 1.16 xG per match, which is 14th in a low-scoring league like La Liga. They're also 12th in shots allowed per 90; 12th in big scoring chances conceded; and, last in ball recoveries, per fbref.com.

So, I think Real Madrid at -140 is overvalued, especially having a day less rest than Sevilla and having had to travel to Sheriff Tiraspol for Wednesday's Champions League match.

I only have Real Madrid projected at +111, so there's some value on Sevilla +0.5 at +120 odds in this important fixture.

Pick: Sevilla +0.5 (+120)

Ligue 1 Projections

Best Bets

Lens vs. Angers

I'm going back to one of my favorite teams in Europe, because this Lens team is a wagon. Yes, they did lose to Stade de Brest, 4-0, this past weekend, but the box score from that match was quite hilarious.

Lens won the xG battle by a 1.72-0.96 margin and created three big scoring chances in the match. The combined xG rating of Brest’s four goals was 0.47 and Lens held 63% of the possession.

(graphic via infogol.net)

Overall, Lens has the second-best NPxGD in France at +11.23, sitting behind only Paris Saint-Germain and it’s because they’re playing at an elite level at both ends of the pitch. They are third in NPxG, averaging 1.91 per match. Plus, they rank second in shots per 90 and big scoring chances.

Now, this Angers team they’re facing is very good defensively, ranking fifth in NPxG allowed, and second in both shots conceded per 90 and big scoring chances yielded.

However, the Angers offense has done nothing this season from open play, with only 11.57 xG in 14 matches. They’re also 19th in shots per 90; 17th in box entries; and, 17th in crosses completed into the penalty area. Lens is fourth in NPxG allowed; first in big scoring chances conceded; third in box entries yielded; and, first in cross completed into their own penalty area. So, I don’t know how Angers is going to create anything of substance going forward. 

I have Lens projected at -138, so I think there's some value on them at -110 odds on DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Lens ML (-110)