European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Midweek La Liga & Ligue 1 (April 19-21)

Along with the Premier League being in action, there's a full slate of midweek matches taking place across Spain and France.

The drama is starting to intensify in both leagues in the race for the final Champions League spot, with only a few points separating a number of clubs.

There are some huge games, especially in France with Monaco hosting Nice and Strasbourg taking on Rennes. Additionally, the big contest in Spain will be takes place Thursday with Barcelona battling Real Sociedad.

La Liga Table

Ligue 1 Table

*Graphics courtesy of FBref.com

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

La Liga Projections

Best Bets

Mallorca vs. Alavés

This is a relegation six pointer in Spain, with Mallorca sitting a point above the relegation zone and Alavés four points from safety. However, the gap in the underlying performances of these clubs is quite large.

Mallorca is one of the biggest under-performers in all of Europe, sitting with a -26 actual goal differential, but only a -7.7 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. This is a fantastic, buy-low spot for the side, because it has lost eight of its last nine matches and have a -12 goal differential in those games.

However, it xGDiff in those nine contests is only -1.9 overall. The side's 3-0 loss this past weekend to Elche was a perfect example of not getting the results it has deserved.

*(Graphic via infogol.net)

On the other side, Alavés is sitting in last place for a reason. It has the second-worst xGDiff (-18.6) in Spain, mainly due to the fact it is terrible at both ends of the pitch.

Offensively, Alavés is averaging just 0.80 NPxG per match and has created more than one xG in three of its last 13 games. The club is also one of the worst in Spain at playing through pressure, ranking 18th in both Offensive PPDA and pressure success rate allowed, per fbref.com. That's going to be a problem against Mallorca, which is a top-10 pressing team in La Liga.

Also, Alavés is one of the worst defensive teams in Spain, allowing 1.54 xG per match, but it has been really bad since the calendar turned to 2022, allowing 1.81 xG per game.

I have Mallorca projected as the -101 moneyline home favorite, so I like the club at +115 odds to grab all three points on home soil.

Pick: Mallorca ML (+115)

Celta Vigo vs. Getafe

This match is set up to be very low-scoring, due to how defensive both teams are going to set up. Celta Vigo and Getafe play out of a 4-4-2 formation and they’re both good when playing out of it, because both are allowing less than 1.30 xG per 90 minutes, per understat.com.

Getafe features the worst offense in Spain and close to the worst across Europe, averaging only 0.67 NPxG per match. In fact, Getafe has only created 15 total big scoring chances in 32 games, which is the lowest mark among Europe’s top-five leagues. That being said, Getafe is a fantastic defensive team, allowing just 0.97 NPxG per contest and sit top five in shots allowed per 90 minutes and big scoring chances conceded.

Offensively, Celta Vigo has been in a rut the past three months, averaging only 0.95 xG per match over their last 12 fixtures. Honestly, the biggest problem is that is isn't getting many shots off, as it's 15th in La Liga in shot per 90 minutes. Defensively, though, Celta Vigo has been excellent over its last 12 contests, yielding only 1.02 NPxG per match and eight big scoring chances.

Additionally, in 20 of Celta Vigo’s 32 matches, at least one team has failed to create at least one xG, and for Getafe, 27 of its 32 matches have featured at least one team who has failed to create at least one xG overall.

I have the Both Teams To Score (No) wager projected at -282, so I absolutely love the value on that bet to connect at -130 odds.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-130)

Ligue 1 Projections

Best Bets

Lens vs. Montpellier

Both offenses have over-performed this season. Montpellier has scored 44 goals off 35.1 xG, while Lens has scored 50 goals off 43.9 xG this season. However, Lens has been getting very lucky of late. In its last four matches, the club has scored eight goals off 4.1xG overall.. 

The Montpellier defense has been really bad, ranking last in shots allowed per 90 minutes, box entries and crosses completed into the penalty area. That being said, Montpellier is very good at keeping those chances in the penalty area as low quality as possible, because it's eighth in big scoring chances allowed and fourth in average shot distance, per fbref.com. 

Lens boasts an outstanding defense that should be able to put up a clean sheet against an over-performing Montpellier offense. Lens is top six in xGA, shots allowed per 90 minutes, big scoring chances conceded, and box entries yielding. Its defense only gets better when it's at home as well, as it's allowing 1.08 xG per match.

I only have 2.31 goals projected for this game, so I like the value on the total staying under 2.5 goals at +110 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+110)