Things got off to a bang on the European soccer landscape last weekend after the international break, with several underdogs pulling off stunning wins across the continent.
Our Action Network handicappers didn't give out relegation-bound West Bromwich Albion (+1200 odds), which earned a shocking, 5-2 victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, but they did come through with two other upsets that felt just as nice.
Anthony Dabbundo got things started by delivering Eintracht Frankfurt (+320) in its victory over Champions League side Borussia Dortmund. He was then followed by Matt Trebby, who uncovered a gem in La Liga outfit Cádiz (+215) in its win over Valencia in Spain's top flight.
If you're new to this preview, our experts search for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend in Europe. Whether it's a showdown in Serie A, La Liga or the Premier League, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let's take a look at this week's five selections.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Wolfsburg | Wolfsburg | +200 | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Burnley vs. Newcastle United | Newcastle | +240 | Sunday | 7 a.m. ET |
| Hellas Verona vs. Lazio | Hellas Verona | +265 | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| Roma vs. Bologna | Bologna | +340 | Sunday | 12 p.m. ET |
| Real Betis vs. Atlético Madrid | Real Betis | +230 | Sunday | 3 p.m. ET |
Odds as of Friday night via DraftKings.
Matt Trebby: Wolfsburg ML (+200) vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
This is a matchup of two of the Bundesliga’s hottest teams, and I’m going to back the side with the league’s best defense this year.
Since a Jan 3 loss to Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg has allowed just seven goals in 13 matches. On the other side, Eintracht Frankfurt has scored 32 goals during that span, and conceding a reasonable 14 goals.
The Wolves have won five of their last six, outscoring opponents by a 14-3 margin in those contests. They’re the hotter side in a game that's pretty much a Pick'em affair, so I’ll take them at these solid odds.
Jeremy Pond: Newcastle United ML (+240) vs. Burnley
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
So, I was able to narrow things down to two options for this week's underdog selection. The first choice is sitting right above me via Trebby's pick.
I love that angle on Wolfsburg getting the win over Eintracht Frankfurt in their Bundesliga affair. Even Dabbundo got in on the Wolves' action, picking the road side to triumph in his preview of the match.
That said, it wouldn't be any fun to add a third person to the Wolfsburg bandwagon, so I'm heading northwest across the North Sea to England and throwing support behind Newcastle United in its showdown with Burnley.
The Magpies are coming off a hard-earned 2-2 tie against Newcastle United last weekend, one in which they held a 2.7-1.7 xG advantage. It was a much-needed point, due to the fact Newcastle is in the midst of a Premier League relegation battle.
A victory against the Clarets, who have won just two of their last 12 matches overall, would potentially put them level with Brighton & Hove Albion on points in 16th place. The Seagulls host Everton in a huge fixture on Monday's card.
Bottom line, I can't back a Burnley side that's playing so poorly. The Clarets have been downright awful, highlighted by the fact they blew a 2-0 lead against Southampton en route to a devastating 3-2 defeat last time out.
That said, I am rolling with Newcastle to bag all three points at Turf Moor and move closer to safety in England's top flight. Getting the Magpies (+240) at these kind of odds when they should be under +200 is a gift.
BJ Cunningham: Hellas Verona ML (+265) vs. Lazio
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
Lazio is one of the most overrated teams in Italy this season. The White and Sky Blues are currently sitting in sixth place in Serie A table, but have a measly +4.35 expected-goals differential during their campaign.
In addition to that, Lazio has some injury issues entering this game, as starting striker Joaquin Correa and starting right midfielder Manuel Lazzari are going to miss this match. The loss of Correa is actually quite big, because he's the main striker who plays along with Ciro Immobile in Lazio’s 3-5-2 system.
Verona, which is sitting in the top half of the Italian top flight standings, is a really solid outfit, which has shown the capabilities of pulling off upsets. The club already has victories on home soil against powerful Napoli and Roma.
The Yellow and Blues have had much more success at home than on the road, as they have a +1.43 xGDIff at the Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi compared to a -6.7 xGDiff away from their stadium.
Most importantly though, Verona beat Lazio by a 2-1 scoreline in Rome earlier this season in Rome. The Yellow and Blues deserved the win that day, winning the xG battle in the matchup.
I really don’t think Lazio should be an even-money favorite in this spot, as I have Verona projected at +205 odds. For that reason, I think there is good value on the home side pulling off the upset.
Anthony Dabbundo: Bologna ML (+340) vs. Roma
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 12 p.m. ET
This is a nightmare spot for the favored Roma. The Yellow and Reds just played a road Europa League match game in the Netherlands on Thursday against Ajax, where they were second best for the entire game and stole a late winner.
Ajax won the xG battle by a 3.3-0.5 margin, but a missed penalty and some finishing variance helped Roma secure the first-leg win. The performance and injury lists are nothing new for Roma, which is short on capable defenders and it has shown in recent weeks. These are some advanced metrics from Roma: 1.7 xGA allowed to Parma; 1.0 xGA yielded to Napoli in a game its foe led 2-0 early and sat in; and, now 3.2 xGA and 3.3 xGA allowed to Sassuolo and Ajax.
In contrast, Bologna’s underlying performances have been steadily improving in recent weeks after a poor start to the Serie A season.
Since Feb. 2, Roma is ninth in non-penalty expected goal difference per Understat, with Bologna sitting in seventh place. Roma was underrated based on its early-season performances and results, but the injuries and attacking regression have contributed to pretty mediocre.
Also, the hosts might have one eye looking toward next Thursday’s second leg with Ajax, which is now their best chance at winning a trophy and earning a Champions League spot next season.
As the last remaining Italian team in European competition and seven points from fourth place in Italy's top flight, there's value in fading Roma in this spot.
Kieran Darcy: Real Betis ML (+230) vs. Atlético Madrid
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 3 p.m. ET
It goes without saying that El Clásico is the biggest match in Spain this weekend, but there’s another very important contest going as well.
Atlético Madrid enters the weekend with a one-point lead over Barcelona and a three-point edge on Real Madrid in the race for the La Liga title.
However, Atlético Madrid is only the fifth-best team in the league in terms of xGDiff (12.1), according to FBRef, and that's well behind Barcelona (+32.1 xGDiff), Real Madrid (+20.8 xGDiff) and other club. Los Colchoneros have also cone out victorious in one of their last four matches, and that was a very unimpressive 1-0 triumph over last-place Alaves.
On the other hand, Real Betis has lost just one of their past seven matches — a narrow 1-0 setback against city rival Sevilla. Five of the other six results were wins. The club has conceded only four goals in their past six matches combined, and less than 1.0 xG in all of those contests.
Real Betis is up to sixth place in its first season under former Manchester City and Real Madrid manager Manuel Pellegrini, which has me thinking taking them at this moneyline price is worth a shot.
