We are back with some more intriguing angles for you when it comes to live underdogs playing this weekend on the European soccer landscape, with the hope of coming through with multiple winners playing across the continent.
Our Action Network handicappers had a tough go of it last weekend, with just one moneyline dog cranking out an upset among our five picks. Jeremy Pond came through with Newcastle United hitting at +240 odds in their huge victory over Burnley in Premier League action.
If you're new to this preview, our experts search for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend in Europe. Whether it's a showdown in Ligue 1, Serie A or the Premier League, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let's take a look at the crew's latest selections on the card.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich | Wolfsburg | +280 | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Union Berlin vs. VfB Stuttgart | Stuttgart | +210 | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Chelsea vs. Manchester City | Chelsea | +370 | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| Reims vs. Metz | Metz | +225 | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| Alavés vs. Huesca | Huesca | +205 | Sunday | 10:15 a.m. ET |
Odds as of Friday night via DraftKings.
Jeremy Pond: Wolfsburg ML (+280) vs. Bayern Munich
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
Oh, Newcastle United. You have brought me such pain and misery so many times in the past, but last weekend's victory over Burnley got us closer to reconciliation. So, many thanks to the Magpies for that wagering win.
Now, we take a crack at another upset possibility with the Wolves of Wolfsburg. The Bundesliga stalwart would love to book its spot in next season's Champions League, and what better way to push closer toward that goal with a victory against the soon-to-be nine-time league champion.
Wolfsburg enters this match in third place in the German top flight, sitting seven points behind RB Leipzig and just a point clear of Eintracht Frankfurt to round out the top four.
The Wolves, led by standout Wout Weghorst, face the demoralized Bavarians coming off their midweek UCL elimination at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain, plus they will be missing Robert Lewandowski again and a handful of others for this road affair at Volkswagen Arena.
As I mentioned in my preview of this match, it really comes down to two things: 1) which club is more fit and has fewer players sidelined for various reasons; and, 2) who needs the result. Needless to say, it's Wolfsburg.
This is a monstrous opportunity staring the Wolves straight in their faces, knowing they're getting a less-than-healthy and potentially unmotivated side across center line in the Bavarians.
I found a ton of value in the Double Chance line of Wolfsburg moneyline or Draw at (-109) odds, so I'm going to roll the dice and back them to win this thing outright against Bayern Munich at close to +280 odds.
Throwing in the fact Wolfsburg is unbeaten at home, and it just makes this play too good to pass up as well. The Wolves have a sizzling goaltender in Koen Casteels, who might be the best in the entire league with his 13 clean sheets, and that gives me even more confidence this group can pull off the shocker.
Matt Trebby: VfB Stuttgart ML (+210) vs. Union Berlin
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
Wait a second. I can get Stuttgart at these odds against a team that has won two of its last 12 Bundesliga matches? Cool! Sign me up.
While Union Berlin has seen its dreams of European football go up in smoke, Stuttgart is thriving. Having lost just twice in its last eight games, the former Bundesliga fixture are basking in its return to the German top flight.
Currently sitting in ninth place in the table and just a point behind Union Berlin in seventh, Stuttgart plays an open style that's highlighted by attackers Sasa Kalajdzic and Silas Wamangituka, who have a combined 25 goals this season.
Union Berlin has only lost one of its last six matches, a span during which it's won just once as well, but the lack of end product is startling. The Iron Ones have scored seven goals during that stretch, two of which came in their only loss — a 5-2 game against Eintracht Frankfurt — where defense was optional.
This game should be a Pick'em, but Union Berlin is favored at home. I’ll back the away side that's going to take the game to the opposition.
Anthony Dabbundo: Chelsea ML (+370) vs. Manchester City
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
My numbers make Chelsea the second-best team in the entire Premier League, as well as one of the four best teams in the world right now.
The Blues comfortably qualified for the Champions League semifinal round, plus they've played their way back into the top-four race in league action and have a chance at silverware in both the domestic and international fronts.
Simply put, Chelsea shouldn’t be at +370 odds on the moneyline against anyone, even the best team in the world in Manchester City.
It’s really hard to make a case against the Cityzens, though. In my opinion, they're No. 1 by a solid margin and win this match more often than they lose it. However, my projections put the Blues at +270 on the moneyline and will take my chances with the heightened odds on a neutral ground.
Defensively, Chelsea has been even better than Manchester City since Thomas Tuchel became the manager. The Blues have been nearly as good overall. Chelsea is +1.09 non-penalty xG difference per 90 minutes in their last 12 matches, while Manchester City is +1.40/90 minutes.
For that reason, I like Chelsea in a low-scoring affair where a fluke or moment of quality could swing it either way.
BJ Cunningham: Metz ML (+225) vs. Reims
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
Reims is quite literally the most overrated team in Ligue 1. The Red and Whites are currently in 12th place in the table, but based on Understat’s expected-points metric, they should be in a relegation spot.
The main reason for that is because they’ve been incredibly fortunate on defense, as they’ve conceded 38 goals on the season, but allowed opponents to create 49.12 expected goals.
In fact, Reims has lost the expected-goals battle in six of its last eight matches, but have somehow is unbeaten in those eight games. In addition to that, the club is only creating 0.81 xG per match at home this season, which is second to last in the French top flight.
In contrast, Metz is currently sitting in 10th place in the standings and have enjoyed a very nice season after almost getting relegated last year. Now, its offensive record isn’t great since it's only creating 1.15 xG, while allowing only 1.14 xG during the campaign. However, it's significantly better than Reims, who shouldn’t be only two spots below it in the category.
Additionally, Reims is going to be without four of its starters, including its main striker Boulaye Dia, who has scored 14 of the clubs 35 goals this season.
I have Metz projected at +141 for this match, due to the fact it's a better team than Reims, so I’ll gladly take them at +225 odds.
Kieran Darcy: Huesca ML (+210) vs. Alavés
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 10:15 a.m. ET
It’s a weird weekend in Spain. This year’s Copa del Rey final is being played on Saturday, with Athletic Bilbao taking on Barcelona. It comes just two weeks after last season’s long-delayed final was finally played. Athletic Bilbao was in that one as well, suffering a 1-0 loss to Real Sociedad.
That’s a standalone game, meaning all eight La Liga games this weekend are being played Sunday. And one of the biggest is 19th-place Alavés hosting 16th-place Huesca. Alavés has 24 points, which is three points from safety. As for Huesca, it has 27 points, which is level with 17th-place Real Valladolid.
Alavés hosts this match, but it's winless in its past eight games (six losses and two draws). The club has scored only 24 goals in 30 matches this season, generating the the worst goal difference in the league at -23 in the category.
In contrast, Huesca has won its past two matches — a 3-1 victory over 18th-place Elche; and, a 2-0 triumph at ninth-place Levante — and has taken at least a point from five of its past seven games. The visitors have scored seven more goals than Alavés, conceded two fewer and beat them, 1-0, the first time they met back on Dec. 12 in league action.
Spanish forward Rafa Mir is red-hot, with a brace in each of the past two games, and at least one goal in four of his past six appearances. For me, that all adds up to a pretty good spot for Huesca.
