If you followed our favorite European soccer underdogs two weeks ago, you would have been pleased.
If you followed our picks on last week's card, you would have been ecstatic.
Our group of Action Network soccer analysts came through with a 4-2 record via their selections, including monster upset victories via Premier League outfit Everton (+600) from Michael Leboff and Monaco (+375) hitting in style for BJ Cunningham with its stunner against French juggernaut Paris Saint-Germain to close out the wagers.
Fellow handicapper Jeremy Pond cashed with Ligue 1 side Montpellier (+205), and Matt Trebby started things off with Union Berlin (+215) in Bundesliga play.
If you're new to this preview, our experts search for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend in Europe. Whether it's a match in Ligue 1, Serie A or Premier League, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
Now, our focus has switched to this week's sextet of clubs we believe have a shot at an upset. That said, let's a look at the picks.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux vs. Metz | Metz | +215 | Saturday | 7 a.m. ET |
| Manchester City vs. West Ham | West Ham | +1100 | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| Barnsley vs. Millwall | Millwall | +240 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Sevilla vs. Barcelona | Sevilla | +215 | Saturday | 10:15 a.m. ET |
| RB Leipzig vs. Gladbach | Gladbach | +430 | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad | Sociedad | +295 | Monday | 3 p.m. ET |
Odds as of Friday at 7:45 p.m. ET via DraftKings.
Jeremy Pond: Bordeaux vs. Metz (+215)
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 7 a.m. ET
Finding a solid underdog in Ligue 1 action worked nicely in last week's fixtures, with Montpellier coming through with a big victory over Rennes.
That said, I am going to the well one more in the French top flight and taking a swing on Metz to secure a road win against struggling host Bordeaux to kick off our loaded card.
Metz enters this match with European soccer dreams, sitting in sixth place on the table and just two points behind Lenz in the standings. The Maroons enter this fixture fresh off a 2-1 victory over Nice last time out, which snapped a two-game losing streak.
In contrast, Bordeaux has been downright miserable as of late. The Girondins are winless in their last six outings, losing five of six in the process. Making matters worse is the fact they've been shut out in four of their last five games.
Statistically, Bordeaux continues to be a club that is truly middle-of-the-pack in the advanced metrics. The Girondins sits on a subpar 27.0 expected goals and disappointing 35.8 expected goals against, generating a lackluster -8.8 xGDiff and -0.34 xGDiff/90 minutes.
When comparing stats with its host, Metz boasts better overall numbers. The Maroons are on 29.8 expected goals and 31.2 expected goals against, resulting in a relatively flat -1.4 xGDiff and -0.06 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Bottom line, I really like Metz in this showdown. The Maroons are in better form and would love to snag all three points to inch closer to Lens on the table. Add in the fact Bordeaux has been miserable as of late and Metz is in prime position for a crucial road triumph.
Michael Leboff: Manchester City vs. West Ham United (+1100)
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
Call me crazy, but I think West Ham arise worth a punt to end Manchester City’s 19-game winning streak Saturday at Etihad Stadium.
The Cityzens are absolutely flying and their statistical portfolio has been astounding over the past few months. However, the Hammers come into this game in brilliant form as well.
Since Jan. 1, West Ham is 7-1-1 with a plus-8 goal differential. When you see a team like this go on a run of that nature you immediately want to check its underlying numbers to see if it's being propped up by luck. Yet, that just isn’t the case with this team right at the moment.
In fact, the Hammers rank third in the Premier League in both xG differential (+7.48) and xG allowed (7.97) since New Year’s Day. If they can keep up their defensive form, they should be able to hang around and perhaps get lucky.
I could go into Manchester City’s numbers, but there’s really no point. This is a buy on a well-organized team in great form at long odds.
Manager David Moyes has always been known as a pragmatic manager who wants to set his team up not to fail rather than to succeed in big matches, but it seems like the Scot has taken a big step on the sideline this season.
West Ham will be a tricky opponent for Manchester City, and I think these odds — which imply the longshot wins just 8.3% of the time — are definitely long enough to have a go at the shocker.
BJ Cunningham: Barnsley vs. Millwall (+240)
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
Barnsley is one of the most overrated teams in the Championship. Sure, the Tykes have won four consecutive matches, including an upset victory against Brentford, but they should be lower on the table.
Barnsley only has a +2.20 expected-goal differential, which is 12th best in the entire league.
In fact, the Tykes have just a +0.9 xGD in 15 matches at the Oakwell Stadium. They walked away with 2-0 home triumph against Stoke City on Wednesday, but that game was a lot more even than the scoreline showed, as the Potters won the xG goals battle by a 1.08 to 0.97 margin.
Millwall has been on a fantastic run over the past few months, going unbeaten in their last nine matches. The Lions have been especially dominant over their last six matches, winning the xG battle in all of those fixtures and puting up a +3.50 xGD. in the process. Not to mention Millwall only has one loss in their last seven road matches.
The Lions settled for a 1-1 home draw with Barnsley earlier this season, but was by far the better side, holding a 12-6 edge in shots and 1.11-0.32 xG edge.
I have this projected at +194 for this match, so I think there is some value on the Lions at +240 to keep their good run of form going on the road against an overrated Barnsley squad.
Kieran Darcy: Sevilla (+215) vs. Barcelona
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10:15 a.m. ET
We’ve got a top-four clash in Spain on our hands, with fourth-place Sevilla hosting third-place Barcelona. I’m always hesitant to bet against Lionel Messi and company, but I think it’s worth taking a shot with the host at this price.
Sevilla is just two points behind Barcelona on the table, but it just earned a 2-0 home victory over Barcelona earlier this month in the first leg of a Copa del Rey semifinal tie. Sevilla has also won six consecutive league matches, keeping a clean sheet in the last five outings.
In fact, the club now has the joint best defensive record in the Spanish top flight, sharing the honor with Atlético Madrid, as both have conceded just 16 goals in 23 games.
Barcelona had to play a rescheduled match Wednesday, so the host will be on shorter rest. And even though Blaugrana cruised to a 3-0 win in that match, it was against 19th-place Elche.
Prior to that was a 1-1 draw at Camp Nou against 14th-place Cadiz last weekend, preceded by a 4-1 thrashing delivered by Paris-Saint Germain in the Champions League.
Simply put, all is not right with Barcelona.
Anthony Dabbundo: RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach (+410)
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
Bottom line, Borussia Mönchengladbach recent poor form is inflating this line. I only have the underdog at +330 in this match, and thus will take it at anything above +375 odds.
The Foals have had plenty of success against the top teams in the Bundesliga this season. They knocked off RB Leipzig in the reverse fixture, came from two goals down to beat Bayern Munich in a 3-2 thriller and pulled off a 4-2 victory over Borussia Dortmund as well.
Playing Gladbach as a moneyline dog against the German flight's top teams has been very profitable, even though it has struggled to break down the smaller teams in league fixtures.
Gladbach’s defense has allowed fewer than than one xGA in each of its last four Bundesliga games, plus it held Manchester City to 1.1 xGA in Wednesday’s Champions League fixture.
The Foals should be able to contain this RB Leipzig attack that doesn’t really have a clear focal point or reliable goal scorer. The Red Bulls are winners of four in a row, which is another reason this line is a tad off in my opinion.
Gladbach's problem has been with its attack, where the club has struggled to generate big scoring chances.
This should be a cagey affair, and at this price, I’ll take my chances on the Foals to find the winning goal.
Matthew Trebby: Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad (+295)
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Monday | 3 p.m. ET
According to the xG data, there really isn’t much separating Real Madrid and Real Sociedad this season.
Real Madrid’s goal difference is +23, with Sociedad right behind at +21 in the category. Real Sociedad’s XG total is 42.72 and Real Madrid’s is 41.90 in this metric. Non-penalty expected goals against? Real Madrid holds a minuscule 18.85-18.73 NPxG edge.
The difference between the clubs is Real Madrid didn’t win one game during an 11-match stretch over the winter, ending its hopes of a top-four finish.
Real Sociedad has won three in a row and did well Thursday in its Europa League match against Manchester United, despite being eliminated after a first-leg embarrassment. The side plays an attractive style and should give an ailing Real Madrid squad fits in this game.
At almost +300, there’s great value on in-form Real Sociedad in this spot.
