The Europa League returns this week for the last round of group play with spots in the Round of 32 on the line.
For those who aren't aware, the Europa League is the second tier of European competitions. The eight clubs that finish in third place in their respective Champions League group drop down to a 32-team playoff with the top-two finishers in each Europa League group.
The Europa League has 12 groups of four teams, which means there are 24 matches every Thursday across Europe. So, if you like action, the Europa League might be for you.
If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.
For the Europa League, my projections factor in UEFA Coefficients for every country represented in the competition. The projections also factor in the talent of each squad based on their total transfer value on TransferMarkt.
That way, the projections can account for the strength of the domestic league each club plays in and the talent level of each club.
Note: These projections do not take injuries into account. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team's starting XI:
Projections
Europa League Injury Report
- AC Milan: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (ST) is questionable to play against Sparta Prague.
- Arsenal:Thomas Partey (CM) is out against Dundalk.
- AZ Alkmaar: Jonas Svensson (RB) is out against Rijeka.
- Bayer Leverkusen: Charles Aranguiz (CM) and Lucas Alario (ST) are out and Karim Bellarabi (RM) is questionable to play against Slavia Prague.
- Celtic: James Forrest (CB) is questionable to play against Lille.
- Feyenoord: Ridgeciano Haps (LB) and Justin Bijlow (GK) are questionable against Wolfsberger.
- Leicester: Caglar Soyuncu (CB) is out. Daniel Amartey (CM) and Timothy Castagne (RB) are questionable to play against AEK Athens.
- Lille: Zeki Celik (RB) is questionable to face Celtic.
- Napoli: Victor Osimhen (ST) is questionable to face Real Sociedad.
- Nice: Youcef Atal (RB) and Kasper Dolberg (ST) are questionable to playagainst Hapoel Beer Sheva.
- Rapid Wien: Dejan Petrovic (CM) and Dejan Ljubicic (CM) are questionable to face Molde.
Picks
- Young Boys/CFR Cluj Over 2.5 (-122)
- Real Sociedad +0.5 (-109)
- Maccabi Tel Aviv +110
- Tottenham/Royal Antwerp Under 3 (+106)
- CSKA Sofia/Roma Over 3 (+102)
- Rangers -1 (-109)
