After the international break and a weekend of domestic action, the Europa League returns this week with rematches of the last round of action.
For those who aren't aware, the Europa League is the second tier of European competitions. The eight clubs that finish in third place in their respective Champions League groups drop down to a 32-team playoff with the top two finishers in each Europa League group.
The Europa League has 12 groups of four teams, which means there are 24 matches every Thursday across Europe. So, if you like action, the Europa League might be for you.
If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.
For the Europa League, my projections factor in UEFA Coefficients for every country represented in the competition. The projections also factor in the talent of each squad based on their total transfer value on Transfer Market.
That way, the projections can account for the strength of the domestic league each club plays in and the talent level of each club.
Note: These projections do not take injuries into account. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team's starting XI:
Projections
Europa League Notes:
- Lille vs. AC Milan: The Serie A leader head on the road to France, with the hopes of avenging its 3-0 home defeat when these two clubs met three weeks ago. The Rossoneri are unbeaten in Serie A play, while Les Dogues only has one Ligue 1 play defeat. Lille is a top the group by one point, so a victory at home would put it in the Group H driver's seat.
Europa League Injury Report:
- AC Milan: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (ST) is out against Lille.
- Arsenal:Bukayo Saka (LWB) and Willian (RW) are out against Molde and Thomas Partey (CM) is questionable.
- Antwerp: Jeremy Galin (CB) is questionable to face LASK.
- Bayer Leverkusen: Charles Aranguiz (CM) is out against Hapoel Beer Sheva.
- Benfica: Nichloas Otamendi (CB) and Julian Weigel (CM) are out against Rangers.
- Celtic: James Forrest (CB) is out against Sparta Prague.
- CFR Cluj: Andrei Burca (CB) is questionable to face Roma.
- CSKA Moscow: Konstantin Kuchaev (RM) and Mario Fernandes (RB) are questionable to face Feyenoord.
- Feyenoord: Ridgeciano Haps (LB), Leroy Fer (CM), and Justin Bijlow (GK) are out against CSKA Moscow.
- Gent: Roman Yaremchuk (ST) is questionable to face Red Star.
- Granada:Kenedy (RW) is questionable to play vs. Omonia Nicosia.
- Leicester: Wilfred Ndidi (CM), Caglar Soyuncu (CB) and Daniel Armartey (CM) are all out against Braga, and Timothy Castagne (RB) is questionable.
- Lille: Renato Sanches (CM) and Zeki Celik (RB) are questionable to face AC Milan.
- LASK: James Holland (CM) is out against Royal Antwerp.
- Napoli: Victor Osimhen (ST) and Elseid Hysaj (LB) are questionable to face Rijeka.
- Nice: Youcef Atal (RB) and Hassane Kamara (LM) are questionable against Slavia Prague.
- PSV: Mario Gotze (CAM) is questionable to face PAOK.
- Rapid Wien: Dejan Petrovic (CM) and Dejan Ljubicic (CM) are questionable to face Dundalk.
- Roma:Chris Smalling (CB) is questionable to face CFR Cluj.
- Tottenham: Toby Alderweireld (CB) is out against Ludogorets.
- Villarreal:Paco Alcacer (ST) and Alberto Moreno (LB) are questionable to face Maccabi Tel Aviv.
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Picks
- CSKA Sofia/Young Boys Over 2.5 (-124)
- CSKA Moscow/Feyenoord Over 2.5 (-120)
- Celtic Draw no Bet (-121)
- Qarabag Draw no Bet (-107)
- PAOK +0.5 (+107)
- Standard Liege Draw no Bet (-117)
