Who will face who in the Euros 2024 Round of 16 knockout stage?
It's complicated. Mostly because it's entirely contingent on which third-place teams end up qualifying. And there are dozens of permeations available, even with just four matches remaining in group stage.
This story was initially employed to help you understand the convoluted system that UEFA employs to determine who will face who in the Round of 16.
Now that everything's been sorted, below is the official Round of 16 bracket for Euros 2024.
Round of 16 Bracket
The following scenarios were relevant after all four Group E teams drew on Wednesday afternoon. Everything has since been finalized — but it's a good window into how complicated the entire system is.
Spain vs. Slovakia (Group E) or Turkiye/Czechia/Georgia (Group F)
This is by far the most complicated end result of the tournament — and will decide how the rest of the tournament breaks down.
After Wednesday's matchups, the most likely matchup will be against Slovakia, unless one of two things happen:
1.) Portugal must lose to Georgia tomorrow. Georgia have market-best odds of +950 at BetRivers to pull off the massive upset. Odds were lower initially, with Portugal already winning the group and with a distinct possibility that they may rest their starters. Instead, Cristiano Ronaldo will play alongside some familiar faces. Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes and some others will miss out on this game, though.
2.) If Czechia beat Turkiye by one or two goals. A win by three or more would have Portugal facing Hungary again. Czechia's best odds are +165 at BetRivers.
If both of these occur, Spain would face Georgia — unless Georgia beats out Czechia on goal difference by outscoring Czechia in a win against Portugal. If Czechia wins by one or two goals and Georgia draws or loses, Turkiye will face Spain.
And if Czechia beats Turkiye by four or more goals, it'll be Slovakia that face Spain. If Czechia beats Turkiye by three goals exactly, a tiebreaker will go down between Turkiye and Hungary as to which team had the most yellow and red cards. The team with the most would be eliminated and the other would face Spain.
Germany vs. Denmark
This matchup is guaranteed.
Portugal vs. 3rd-place in Groups A or C
Portugal is very likely to face Hungary in the first round — unless one of three things occurs tomorrow. If you read the above note regarding Spain's matchup, this may sound familiar.
1.) If they lose to Georgia tomorrow. Georgia have market-best odds of +750 at BetRivers to pull off the massive upset, but as aforementioned, Portugal have already clinched its No. 1 seed and may rest its starters.
2.) If Czechia beat Turkiye by one or two goals. A win by three or more would have Portugal facing Hungary again. Czechia's best odds are +165 at BetRivers.
If either of these things happen, Portugal would face Slovenia in the Round of 16.
France vs. Belgium
France's worst nightmare took place with four draws in the early Wednesday window. The two heavyweights will duke it out on July 1.
Romania vs. 3rd-place from Groups C/D
This one looks far more complicated than it actually is, because most of the insight is aforementioned.
The logic is the exact same as Portugal's situation. In the event that Portugal draws or beats Georgia OR Turkiye avoids a one or two goal defeat, then Romania will face Slovenia.
If Turkiye, Czechia or Georgia is the third-place team from Group E, then Romania face the Netherlands.
Austria vs. Group F Runner-Up
Austria will face off against Turkiye or Czechia here 99% of the time. Effectively, the winner of Turkiye vs. Czechia will face Austria in the Round of 16. A draw means it's Turkiye here.
If Portugal loses to Georgia, that'll throw a slight wrench into this. Georgia can finish as the Group F runner-up if they win and finish with a higher goal differential than Czechia, even after the Czech's win against Turkiye. Currently, Czechia has a one goal advantage over Georgia. It's very unlikely.
England vs. 3rd-place from Groups D/E
This follows the same logic as the Portugal result. England will very, very likely face the Netherlands — by far the worst matchup for a first-place team.
England fans will be rooting for Czechia to beat Turkiye by one or two goals on Wednesday OR Georgia beats Portugal. If either of those events occur, England will face off against Slovakia.
Switzerland vs. Italy
This another matchup that's already been determined.
