Everton vs Brentford Odds
Everton Odds | +165 |
Brentford Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +175 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+125 / -175) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-110 / -135) |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Brentford look to extend their Premier League unbeaten run to seven matches when they visit an Everton side again fighting a relegation battle on Saturday.
The Bees defeated Fulham 3-2 on Monday to keep pace in a tightening picture in the top half of the table. Although Brentford currently sit ninth, they're four points back of fifth-place Liverpool with a match in hand.
Everton remained 18th following a 2-2 draw against Nottingham Forest in which they again showed promising signs, but also twice gave back a lead. It's just as tight at the bottom entering the weekend, with only three points separating 15th from 20th.
These sides settled for a 1-1 draw in their previous meeting in West London, but Everton's goal-scorer that day, Anthony Gordon, has since transferred to Newcastle United.
Everton Need Process to Equal Results
Everton scored multiple goals for the first time in their last 16 games in all competitions in their trip to the City Ground. That makes the outcome of a draw feel two points lost more than one gained.
Demarai Gray struck first on Everton's second penalty of the season. Later, Abdoulaye Doucoure's header staked Everton to a 2-1 halftime lead.
But Brennan Johnson's brace reminded Everton of the kind of consistent attacker they still lack. Johnson's second goal came on an excellent effort from distance in the 77th minute.
Despite manager Sean Dyche's conservative reputation, Everton have created better chances in the six games he's been in charge. The Toffees are averaging 1.3 xG per 90 minutes under Dyche versus about 1.0 in their first 20 matches under Frank Lampard.
But they've underachieved their xG all season and have done so to an even greater degree under their new boss, with 7.9 total xG amounting to only four goals scored.
Brentford Optimistic Towards Big Goals
The Bees benefitted from a deflection on Ethan Pinnock's opening goal and Issa Diop's rash challenge that led to Ivan Toney's go-ahead penalty.
Even so, their victory over Fulham should boost their confidence as they target a high finish.
A Champions League place may be unrealistic, given the pedigree of two sides currently above them. Brentford also have away trips remaining against two of those foes — Liverpool and Tottenham.
Even so, the Bees are only seven points back of fourth-place Spurs with two matches in hand. And while Liverpool seem to be gaining steam, Tottenham are in crisis after an uninspiring tumble out of the UEFA Champions League combined with poor recent league form.
If they're going to make that push, they'll have to earn three points more often from tight matches on their travels. The Bees have drawn six of their 11 away league matches, and in those six games have produced an aggregate +1.4 xG difference.
Everton vs Brentford Pick
What Brentford don't do all that well — even despite their intention to do so — is play with the majority of the possession.
When you look at the Bees' eight league games where they've held more than 50% of the ball, they've only posted a 0-2-6 record (W-L-D) and seen two or fewer goals scored in five of them.
And barring a very early Brentford goal, that's fairly likely to be the case here under Dyche's Everton, who have earned more than half of the possession only once in six EPL fixtures.
The wager I'm backing is a same-game parlay on the Everton or draw double chance wager and the total landing below that threshold. At +115 odds and an implied 46.5% probability, it's also cashed in two of Dyche's three matches in charge. We already covered the favorable numbers relative to Brentford.
Pick: Everton or Draw and Under 2.5, Same-Game Parlay (+115 via BetMGM)
