Everton will host Arsenal in a highly anticipated Matchday 31 clash this Saturday, April 5, with kickoff set for 7:30 AM ET. The match will be broadcast live on NBC Sports.
Here is my Everton vs. Arsenal prediction and Premier League odds for Saturday's match.
Everton vs. Arsenal Prediction, Pick, Premier League Odds
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -120 | 2.5 135o / -175u | -110 |
| Everton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -115 | 2.5 135o / -175u | +350 |
- Everton vs. Arsenal moneyline odds: Everton +350, Draw +235, Arsenal -110
- Everton vs. Arsenal over/under: 2.5 Goals (+131o/-175u)
- Everton vs. Arsenal pick: Under 2.5 Goals
Everton Prediction
Everton are still licking their wounds after a narrow 1-0 defeat to Liverpool in Wednesday night's Merseyside derby. Losing a derby always stings, especially at home, but the bigger picture isn't all doom and gloom: it was the Toffees' first Premier League loss in ten matches (4 wins, 5 draws). That said, the winless run has now stretched to five games (4 draws, 1 defeat), and with their next four fixtures coming against top-six opponents, bouncing back won’t be easy.
Still, Everton have proven they can hold their own against the league’s elite. The loss to Liverpool was just their second in seven matches this season against sides currently in the top six (5 draws). And although Arsenal won their last visit to Goodison Park 1-0 back in September 2023, that remains the only Everton loss in the last six home encounters between the two (4 wins, 1 draw).
David Moyes’s side will be looking to rebuild confidence through performance rather than results, and there’s a stat that keeps fans dreaming: Everton have scored four 90th-minute league goals at Goodison this season — their highest tally of late strikes since the 2016/17 campaign. If there’s one thing you can count on in the blue half of Liverpool, it’s fight.
One potential asset for this clash is Iliman Ndiaye, who returned from a knee injury at Anfield and could start. The forward is Everton’s top scorer this season (six goals), and his presence could be key in what many see as an uphill battle — but not an impossible one.
Arsenal Prediction
Mikel Arteta’s side come into this match with momentum after back-to-back wins over Chelsea and Fulham, but their record in Merseyside leaves little room for optimism: just three wins in their last 26 visits to the city, including games against both Everton and Liverpool (10 draws, 13 losses).
Still, there’s reason for hope — since the start of 2024, no team has earned more away points in the Premier League than Arsenal (52). If the title slips away, it won’t be for lack of trying on the road.
Goodison Park, however, is rarely an easy ground. Arsenal’s last visit ended in a narrow 1-0 win back in September 2023, but that remains their only victory in their last six matches at the stadium. Despite Everton’s inconsistent form, they’ve shown resilience against top-tier opponents and won’t be easy to break down.
Martin Odegaard stands out as one of Arsenal’s key attacking threats. The Norwegian captain has been involved in five goals in his last seven Premier League appearances against Everton (three goals, two assists), though his recent league form has been quiet — just one goal since December.
With the title slipping further from reach, this game represents more than just three points for Arsenal. It’s a test of character — a chance to keep breathing down the leader’s neck, even if only from the shadows.
Everton vs. Arsenal Pick
Expected goals (xG) averages reinforce the idea of a tight, low-scoring match: Arsenal’s games have an average xG of 2.46, while Everton’s sit at just 2.35 — the lowest in the entire Premier League. This points to matches with few clear-cut chances and a general tendency toward controlled, cautious play.
Adding to that, BETSiE ranks this fixture as having the lowest projected goal total of the matchday (1.66), which aligns perfectly with Everton’s recent trend: each of their last four games has seen two goals or fewer.
The recent head-to-head record also supports a cagey affair. Arsenal won 1–0 at Goodison Park in September 2023, and although they had failed to win on their previous five visits there (four losses, one draw), all of those encounters were tight and hard-fought, with low scorelines.
Arsenal goalkeeper David Raya is another key factor in keeping the goal tally down. With a save percentage of 74.5% — the best in the league — the Spaniard strengthens an already solid back line under Mikel Arteta.
All signs point to a game of fine margins, strong defensive structure, and attacks that will need to make the most of every single chance.
