Everton vs Aston Villa Odds, Pick: Prop Has Strong Value in Premier League Fixture (Feb. 25)

Everton Riding New Manager High

There's certainly a new feeling of belief in the Toffees since Dyche's appointment, and his 4-5-1 formation has resulted in a far more cohesive defense.

For once, Everton did not have to ride their good luck defensively in their home victories, as they allowed only 1.4 xG across the two games.

In between, there were understandably more chances created in their 2-0 derby defeat to Liverpool two weeks ago. But Everton were slightly unfortunate to concede the first on a counterattack only seconds after they struck the post themselves. From there, their need to push forward more aggressively is what allowed Liverpool more opportunities.

The big problem remains an utter lack of any consistent scoring threat. Both goals under Dyche have come from defenders, James Tarkowski and Seamus Coleman.

Demarai Gray leads the side with three, and Everton have only two goals in more than 1,500 minutes from their top two choices at center forward, one each from Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Neal Maupay.

That duo has had 5.4 combined xG worth of chances, and Calvert-Lewin continues to battle ongoing injury issues that also hurt him last year. He's unlikely to play again on Saturday.

The must-have app for Soccer bettors

The best soccer betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Aston Villa in Poor Form

Villa had a surge of five league wins in seven matches when Emery first took the helm in November. Yet, they'll travel to Goodison more than a month removed from their most recent EPL victory.

Unlike Everton, the Villains' troubles have come primarily at the back. They've kept only two clean sheets under Emery in all competitions, although both of those have come in away league matches.

They've conceded 11 goals in a three-game losing streak while allowing 9.2 combined xG over those defeats to Leicester, Man City and Arsenal.

But Villa have also been impressively consistent going forward, particularly when they travel and are allowed to adopt more of a countering posture.

They've scored one or two goals in all four of their away league games under their new coach. Ollie Watkins has thrived in Emery's two-forward system, scoring a goal in each of his last four matches to take the team lead with seven.

Everton vs Aston Villa Pick

There's probably some value on the over here at well above even money.

Teams have combined for 2.55 xG per 90 minutes in 23 games between Villa's away schedule and Everton's home itinerary. And while Everton have played significantly tighter games than xG totals would suggest, the over 2.5 has cashed 11 times in those 23 games. That's a 47.8% rate, higher than the implied 42.7% probability of a bet at +134 odds.

So that's my second-favorite play. My favorite is a more aggressive version of the same bet, on the total to land on exactly 3 goals at +350 odds and an implied 22.2% probability.

Given Everton's attacking struggles and Villa's past away form, we can probably surmise that if the total does go above 2.5, it won't do so by a lot. In fact, Everton have not won a match in which the total landed above 3.5 goals. Villa have not won such a match on the road.

Additionally, the total has landed on 3 goals exactly in seven of those previously mentioned 23 games, a 30.4% rate. Given what we know about how these teams attack in these circumstances, the true probability of a three-goal total may be even a solid chunk above the track record so far.

Pick: 3 goals – Exact Total Goals (+350 via FanDuel)