Everton vs Bournemouth Odds
| Everton Odds | +190 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
Everton look to earn their first points and ease some early pressure on manager Sean Dyche when they host a Bournemouth side that has drawn both league games so far to begin life after Dominic Solanke.
Everton came into the season hoping a repeat of last campaign — minus the points sanctions — would bring some mid-table boredom after multiple years of relegation stress. But the Toffees were heavily beaten in their first two games, a 3-0 home loss to Brighton that was closer than the score reflected and a 4-0 away defeat to Tottenham that wasn’t.
Bournemouth have played 1-1 draws away to Nottingham Forest and home to Newcastle United after seeing last year’s 19-goal scorer Solanke move on to Tottenham this summer. His potential replacement, the newly acquired Evanilson, failed to convert on 0.8 expected goals in his Premier League debut against Newcastle last weekend.
The home side has won the last five meetings in this series in all fixtures. That includes Everton’s 3-0 win at Goodison Park in the middle of last October, which snapped a four-match home winless run to open the previous season.
Here is my Everton vs Bournemouth prediction.
Everton
Last season, Everton’s attack was the worst in the Premier League in terms of offensive performance relative to expected goals.
And with questions still remaining up front, Dyche’s charges are going to have major issues this campaign if they generate chances as rarely as they have through two games.
Despite trailing for 141 minutes out of 180 this season — meaning there should be plenty of initiative to go forward — the Toffees have only generated 1.5 total xG and have yet to create a singular chance of 0.30 xG or above.
But Everton’s attack last season was built almost exclusively on the ability to counter, and thus not designed to overcome deficits. Of their 13 league wins a season ago, 11 came while keeping a clean sheet and none involved winning from behind.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth may have aspirations of following follow South Coasters Brighton’s path from the lower divisions to European conversations, but it will only possible if they can sell players like Solanke for a considerable profit, then smartly reinvest the funds they receive.
Solanke completed an $85-million move to Tottenham the week before the season began. And the Cherries clearly had a plan for such an eventuality, inking Evanilson from Porto in time for him to make his debut on match day 2.
The 24-year old had a career best of 14 league goals at Porto, and center forward is a position that often sees players blossom into their most productive years in their mid-20s or later.
But the Brazilian will have to be more efficient than when he flubbed his first quality chance of his EPL career, missing the target in the 64th minute. Otherwise teams will be able to heavily shadow Cherries teammate Antoine Semenyo, who saw four of his eight shot attempts against Newcastle blocked.
Everton vs Bournemouth
Prediction
Everton’s slow start is concerning but also a bit deceptive. Both losses involved early concessions — which destroys Dyche’s preferred game model — and both came to teams that I’m pretty bullish will improve relative to last season.
Couple that with a Bournemouth side that is talented but still replacing a 19-goal scorer and I think the Cherries being installed as an away favorite is a slight overreaction here.
Instead of playing the Toffees on the straight moneyline on a match where the draw is very much in play, I’m parlaying a double-chance wager with a total that comes in under 3.5 at +115 and an implied 46.5% probability.
While the Cherries often play higher scoring contests under Iraola’s press, that’s more difficult to do against an opponent that even at home won’t particularly care about possession. And of Everton’s 10 home matches taking points last season, only one saw more than 3.5 goals scored.
