Everton vs Brentford Odds
| Everton Odds | +145 |
| Brentford Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -132 / -102 |
Like the reverse fixture, this game has somehow made its way to national television at 12:30 p.m. ET on a Saturday. Yes, nothing represents the spirit of English soccer quite like Brentford and Everton launching long balls back and forth, but is this really how Premier League and TV executives want to be marketing the league?
In all seriousness, these are two teams that, despite wildly different personalities manning the touchline, have very similar styles of play. Somehow, an eccentric Dane and a lad from Northampton that played professionally in 1990s England happened upon comparable conceptions of the way this sport should be approached.
As seen in September, when Everton prevailed 3-1 at the Gtech Community Stadium, that approach relies on commitment to defensive organization and being opportunistic in transitions and dead ball situations.
Read on for my Everton vs Brentford pick and prediction and Premier League match preview.
Everton
Everton are coming off one of their biggest results in the last decade — a 2-0 win at Goodison Park against Liverpool. Having not won at home against their bitter rivals since David Moyes was manager, the Toffees decided to end that run in Jurgen Klopp's final Merseyside Derby and ruin Liverpool's title hopes. On top of that, Everton are now virtually safe from relegation, eight points above Luton Town in 18th with just four matches to go.
Sean Dyche has one of the most recognizable, distinct and traditional game models in the Premier League. It's modernized, but a compact mid/deep block, height across the pitch, a powerful target man up top and a reliance on set pieces are all traits of a tactical setup that's gone out of fashion in the last decade. When a Dyche team is at its best, you see the midfielders and forwards swarming opponents, snapping into challenges and launching counter-attacks through direct balls into the channels immediately following turnovers. With a 4-5-1 midblock, midfielders like Amadou Onana and Dominic Calvert-Lewin as a striker, the hallmarks of a typical Dyche team are easily found in this Everton squad. While terms like "possession," "control" and "territorial dominance" aren't really in Dyche's vocabulary, he still makes things work.
Brentford
Like their opponents in this match, Brentford also put themselves on the verge of extending their stay in England's top flight with their last result — a 5-1 thrashing of Luton Town last Saturday. It's been Brentford's worst season in this Premier League stint, but they never looked like going down, and did so despite injuries, Ivan Toney being suspended for half the year and selling David Raya in the summer. A win in this one confirms their safety, but being 10 points above the relegation zone with four matches to play is a position that is really difficult to screw up.
And, as mentioned previously, they play a pretty similar brand of soccer to Everton. Thomas Frank prefers a back five in settled defense, and is also willing to take risks in the "first phase" at both ends, as he has his side press high from goal kicks and isn't opposed to playing out from the back when it's feasible. With Toney only appearing in 13 league matches this campaign, the Bees have missed having that outlet up the pitch that can take the ball down, hold it up and find runners, but they've still averaged 1.53 goals per match, which is equal to their attacking output last season. The defense has regressed a bit, going from 1.31 xG allowed per match to 1.46 this season. Generally, Brentford are still a very similar proposition to what they've been the last two years, but they just haven't gotten the same results.
Everton vs Brentford
Prediction
After an emotionally and physically demanding affair and only two days off before this contest, it's going to be difficult for Everton to put in a performance anywhere near what they produced on Wednesday. Brentford, on the other hand, have had a full week off and will be bolstered by the likely return of Ivan Toney. These two sides cancel each other out pretty much everywhere else, so this is pretty much a pick 'em. Given the factors mentioned, there's no reason for home-field advantage to lead to Everton being priced at +140 and Brentford +195 — a difference in implied probability of nearly eight percentage points.
The Bees have been undervalued in betting markets for a while, and this is yet another example.
