Everton vs Brighton Prediction
| Everton Odds | +162 |
| Brighton Odds | +162 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
The Fabian Hurzeler era begins at Brighton and Hove Albion on Saturday when the Seagulls travel to Goodison Park to face an Everton side feeling more settled after a full season under Sean Dyche.
The 31-year-old Hurzeler succeeds Roberto De Zerbi, who guided the Seagulls to their first ever trip to Europe but left for Marseille following a season when the extra strain of continental football likely contributed to a somewhat disappointing 11th-place finish.
Dyche helped Everton avoid relegation somewhat comfortably in the end despite eight points of total sanctions handed down for Financial Fair Play violations last season. Without those, the Toffees would've finished level on points with Brighton, behind only on inferior goal difference.
Perhaps a reflection of that relatively even strength, these teams drew 1-1 in both league meetings last season.
Let's dive into my Everton vs Brighton prediction.
Everton Picks
Another solid but unspectacular year would be more than satisfactory for Everton fans in the final season at Goodison before their long-awaited move to their new stadium Bramley Moore Dock to begin the 2025-2026 campaign. And despite continuing off-field issues, there's reason to believe this is a team that can finish near the middle of the table based on their travails on the pitch.
Amadou Onana's transfer to Aston Villa represents the only major departure, and he never seemed like the right fit for Dyche's low block setup anyway. So far the club have fended off bids for prized young defender Jarrad Branthwaite and made a couple of intriguing attacking additions with forward Iliman Ndiaye and winger Jesper Lindstrom.
Branthwaite is among those expected not to be available on account of injuries picked up in preseason.
Scoring goals is still the biggest question for a side that underachieved its expected goals created total by 14 last season. Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin was the biggest culprit there, scoring only seven times on 12.9 xG received, and his deputy Beto was actually worse in percentage terms, scoring only three times on 6.8 xG.
Brighton Picks
Hurzeler's football upbringing will mesh well with Brighton's standing as one of the EPL's most quantitatively driven clubs, but tactically it will look pretty different from how De Zerbi played most of the time.
Hurzeler generally preferred a possession-oriented 3-4-3 in his previous role with St. Pauli, a shape De Zerbi deployed only four times in league play last season — twice in matches against Fulham. And under De Zerbi, the Seagulls sometimes struggled in games when they dominated the ball, winning only 2-of-10 matches in all competitions in which they held 70% possession or more.
But it has looked excellent so far under Hurzeler, whose team has outscored opponents 14-3 in preseason. And the struggles to turn ball dominance into match dominance last season may have owed to the difficulty of managing a run to the Europa League round of 16 with a squad still less than a decade into building Premier League-level depth.
Attackers Joao Pedo and Karou Mitoma both succumbed to significant injury layoffs under the weight of that strain. More regular involvement this season — along with contributions from club-record signing Yankuba Minteh — could help Brighton climb back toward the top half of the table.
Everton vs Brighton
Prediction
A yes on the both teams to score wager was one of the most profitable during last year's manic Premier League campaign, but these were two teams who bucked the trends, when accounting for home/away splits and — in Brighton's case — the quality of the opponents.
Some 14 of Everton's 19 home matches finished without a goal, thanks in equal part to some dodgy Everton finishing and some excellent Jordan Pickford goalkeeping. And no on both teams to score was also a winner more than half the time when Brighton visited a bottom-half foe, as well as half of the 10 games when the Seagulls had their highest possession figures. The Seagulls are likely to dominate the ball again here.
So with the caveat that there's always uncertainty around a new manager playing a new shape, I like playing at least one team to keep a clean sheet here at +135 odds and an implied 42.6% probability.
