Everton vs Brighton Odds
| Everton Odds | +210 |
| Brighton Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Everton look for three straight wins in all competitions when they host Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton at Goodison Park.
They are finally getting some of the positive regression they've been due for. They won a very cagey 1-0 affair at West Ham on Sunday and followed that up with Sean Dyche getting revenge against his former club Burnley winning 2-0 in the League Cup on Wednesday. Everton are currently in the relegation zone, but the underlying metrics suggest they are closer to being a mid-table club.
Brighton were held to a 1-1 draw in their last match against Fulham at home and suddenly the form for Roberto De Zerbi's side is starting to be questioned. That is now four straights matches without a win for the Seagulls, so they will be desperate for all three points on Saturday. Brighton are already out of the League Cup, so we should see a full strength lineup from De Zerbi on Saturday.
Let's get into my Everton vs Brighton prediction.
Everton
This match was completely off the rails last season, with Everton putting on a counterattacking clinic, beating Brighton 5-1.
I wonder what Everton are going to do in this match. It was very clear from the kickoff that Fulham were not going to take Brighton’s bait. They played a very narrow 4-4-2 out of possession, which caused Brighton a lot of problems. Everton didn’t really press high like they’ve done against a lot of teams this season, but instead played more of a mid-block, which was incredibly effective and allowed them to get going in numerous transitional opportunities while also keeping their defensive shape in the final third.
Everton can cause problems in transition again just like they did in the last meeting, because it's not in De Zerbi's nature not to be aggressive in build up and counter-pressing. Brighton have struggled defending in transition, as they are 18th in final third to box entry conversion rate. Everton are not going to be as passive as Fulham were against Brighton and most importantly they are a much better offense.
The Toffees are averaging 1.54 npxG per 90 minutes and if you take out their matches against Liverpool and Arsenal, Everton have created over 1 xG in six of their other eight matches.
The problem that exists for Everton are even if they decide to sit off, I don’t think they are good enough defensively in their low block to stop on of the best teams in the Premier League at breaking down low blocks. The Toffees are only allowing 1.16 npxG per 90 minutes, but a lot of that was from good defensive performances against Luton Town, Bournemouth and Aston Villa.
Brighton
I think what people forget about that 5-1 drubbing at the hands of Everton last year is Brighton took 24 shots, controlled 78% of the possession and created 3.2 xG, which was their fifth-highest output of the season under De Zerbi. So, the Everton defense really wasn’t that solid.
Brighton are so good at manipulating and breaking down teams that play low blocks against them. Mitoma and Adingra's positioning is always key. Brighton always will try to overload the middle of the pitch and sometimes those two will play more centrally in the half space to keep the opposing center backs pinned in when teams want to go five at the back against them.
When they are facing a team that plays four at the back, they will stay bit wider to stretch the opposing back line and force the opposing defense to make a decision whether they are going to allow space in the wide areas for those two to go 1 v 1 or give Brighton numerical superiority in the middle of the pitch. It shows in the data too because Brighton are second in the Premier League in final third to box entry conversion rate, getting into the opponent's box 38.7% of the time from final third entries.
The problems that have existed for Brighton are that teams like Everton have exploited them in transition. De Zerbi fused to build up on a 4-2-4 shape, but recently he has switched that formation to three at the back in build up. Against Fulham they were building up in a 3-2-5, and the reason for the switch is two fold. First, having more players centrally against teams that want to play narrow out of possession gives you the best chance of playing through the middle of the pitch. Secondly, when Brighton do lose the ball they have more players centrally to try and stop those counterattacks. They conceded a combined 0.9 xG to Ajax and Fulham, but Everton will be a much more difficult nut to crack.
Everton vs Brighton
Prediction
This is a fascinating encounter given what happened just six months ago.
Normally, after a crazy match like that you'd think that someone like De Zerbi would play more conservative in build up or be more passive out possession to not get exposed, but I have never seen De Zerbi do that since he has become the manager of Brighton. Honestly, why should he change? Brighton created a boat load of chances, controlled a majority of the possession, but just got caught on the wrong side of variance.
Everton likely are going to sit back in their mid block and look to cut off easy passes through the central parts of the pitch. Once they win the ball, they will be looking to play through the center of the pitch, where Brighton have been most vulnerable. Per Opta, 38.0% of Everton's chances created this season have come through the center of the pitch, which is the third-highest average behind only Manchester City and Tottenham.
So, I think we have another chaotic match on our hands with a lot of chances at both ends. I projected 3.7 goals for this match, so I like the value on the over.
