Everton vs Burnley Odds
| Everton Odds | -134 |
| Burnley Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138o / +110u |
Everton and Burnley clash in a critical relegation six-pointer on Saturday at Goodison Park, and it's the visitors who enter in the better form.
For the moment, Everton have a four-point cushion above the relegation line. But the Toffees have gone 13 league matches without a victory, a run of games that extends back to December, and they could still face a second points sanction from the Premier League on account of a second charge of violating Financial Fair Play regulations.
At the moment, Burnley are currently seven points beneath Everton and six behind West Ham in their suddenly rejuvenated fight for survival. But Vincent Kompany's men are suddenly unbeaten in their last four after their 1-1 draw at home to Wolves in midweek.
Everton have won the teams' previous two meetings, 3-0 at home in the League Cup on Nov. 1 and then 2-0 at Burnley a month-and-a-half later.
Read on for my Everton vs Burnley prediction.
Everton
Sean Dyche's Everton continue to be a solid defensive side, but the dam can only hold so much water when there's no release valve in the way of attacking production.
The Toffees have scored multiple goals only once during their 13-match league winless run, and even on that occasion, their 2-2 draw against Tottenham felt like a performance that probably should have been a victory. Abdoulaye Dacoure still leads Everton with six goals from his role as the second forward in what is often a 4-4-1-1, despite not scoring since Dec. 10.
Overall, xG data indicates the quality of the performances has been better than the result, even if accounting for a deficiency in finishing. An expected-goal difference per 90 minutes of -0.29 during that stretch would make Everton 14th in the league in that metric if posted over the full season.
But justmaybe there are signs of a thaw coming. Everton became the last PL side top earn their first penalty of the season in their 1-1 draw at Newcastle United in midweek. And just maybe the spot kick converted by Dominic Calvert-Lewin could be enough to jumpstart the out-of-form striker, who hadn't found the net in any of his previous 23 appearances.
The run of games also gets far friendlier down the stretch, even accounting for matches against title contenders Liverpool and Arsenal. Dyche's side have faced only four teams currently in the bottom half of the league table in their last 13 games, and none of the three sides in the relegation places. They'll see all three relegation zone occupants down the stretch and play two more bottom-half foes in the last eight.
Burnley
Burnley have appeared willing to let manager Vincent Kompany stay on the job even if his approach leads to a return to the League Championship next season. And his side's most recent performances would appear to validate that belief in the former Manchester City defender.
But why have they come now? It's probably just the timing of the first run of truly winnable — or at least drawable — fixtures since the loan signing of Chelsea's David Fofana.
To be clear, Fofana was excluded from a remarkable 2-2 draw against his parent club two games ago, in which the Clarets twice climbed from a goal down and a man down to earn a point. And he didn't score in their most recent 1-1 home draw against a depleted Wolves side.
Yet his arrival to a goal-starved team has created some emotional room to breathe after a first half of the season where every big chance missed felt like a majorly deflating blow. And none of the recent positive results have come against any of the top six in the table. When you stretch back further, Burnley have taken points in five of their last seven games against teams currently in the bottom half of the standings.
Another reason to potentially be bullish on the Clarets here is there isn't any differentiation between their home and away from this season. They actually have one more point earned away in one less game, food for thought against an Everton side that has been particularly bad in its home matches.
Everton vs Burnley
Prediction
For all the wild games in the Premier League this season, there are trends here that make a play on a lower total appealing in this match. Sort of.
Since Everton's schedule has been so heavily skewed away from home games against lesser foes, they've played only five opponents beneath the midpoint of the PL standings at Goodison. All five of those games have gone under 3.5 goals, and three have also finished above 1.5.
The same trend is even more pronounced with Burnley's travels to lower-half foes, with the total landing on two or three goals on five of six occasions.
Considering the Clarets now have a real scoring threat now in Fofana, plus the chance that Calvert-Lewin's penalty helps get him started, and it would seem that while four or more goals is unlikely, so is zero or one.
So I'm playing a goal-bands wager on the total landing on two or three, at +105 odds and an implied 48.8% probability. There's probably value on this as low as -110 or -115, though I haven't seen the cost that high at any book.
