Everton vs Crystal Palace Odds
| Everton Odds | -106 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +105 / -134 |
Everton and Crystal Palace played to a goalless draw in the third round of the FA Cup draw at Selhurst Park, setting up a replay of their match on Merseyside on Wednesday. The goals have dried up for Everton of late as the Toffees have failed to score in each of their last three matches, and they are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.
Crystal Palace enter this match with extra rest because the Eagles didn't have a Premier League match last weekend, and that means that Palace haven't played since the first matchup between the two clubs on Jan. 4. The Eagles did lose a key attacker to injury and project as a worse team on paper, but the value in this cup match lies in betting against both attacks given the stylistic matchup Palace are sure to approach with away from home in a cup match.
Read on for my Everton vs Crystal Palace prediction.
Everton
Everton played a home match on Sunday against Aston Villa and almost all of their attacking output came from one effective move and ball in behind against the Villa defense. Dominic Calvert-Lewin had a 1 on 1 breakaway saved (0.66 xG chance) by Emi Martinez, and the follow up from James Garner was denied by the goalkeeper as well. That double chance in the 45th minute accounted for 0.78 of Everton's 1.2 expected goals.
The Toffees will have a different stylistic matchup against a much more passive Palace defense that will not leave space in behind. Everton and Palace did play out a 3-2 match in November, but there were a ton of big scoring chances in that match and only 20 total shot attempts at goal (including a penalty). Neither attack is particularly efficient at generating high shot volume and both rely on big chances to sustain themselves.
Everton have mostly been unlucky from a finishing variance perspective to not have scored more from the last three games, but the attacking output is also trending downward again. We saw Everton peak just before the Christmas period in their attacking numbers, and the attack is down to 10th in non-penalty xG, 14th in box entries and 17th in final third entries. The xG per shot numbers remain quite high, as do the big scoring chances, but a boom or bust attacking style has the potential to run cold for extended periods and the Everton attack doesn't have the skill in possession to really break down a Palace low block consistently.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace finally managed to get all three of Odsonne Edouard, Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze fit at the same time, but the loss of Olise to injury has again left Palace piecing together in attack with replacement level players. The Eagles will be without Olise and Jordan Ayew for this match (AFCON duty), leaving Jeffrey Schlupp and 19-year old Matheus França as the two likely wide forwards. Schlupp is a Premier League journeyman who does a ton of defensive work for a wide forward but contributes little to ball progression and shots in the penalty area.
The Eagles' attack will go as far as Eze can take them with his dribbling quality. He managed four shots and nine crosses in the match against Everton at home last week, but the Palace attack didn't provide enough support around him to make them truly threaten the Everton goal. The Toffees held them to 0.55 xG at home and Everton remain an elite defensive outfit that ranks fourth in xG per 90 allowed and has conceded the fewest big scoring chances.
Crystal Palace did attempt to come out more and press a bit against Brighton and Liverpool, but Everton play such a direct and long ball-centric style that manager Roy Hodgson is almost incentivized to sit deeper and challenge Everton to create in tight spaces.
Everton vs Crystal Palace
Prediction
These two sides have played two vastly different matches this season between the league and the cup. The league match had 3.0 non-penalty xG, five total goals and was quite back and forth. The current state of both clubs' attacking form and the loss of Olise for Palace leaves both attacks operating below peak efficiency.
I'd bet the under 2.5 at -140 or better here as the Palace attack is projected quite low for its xG total offensively in this match.
