Both Everton and Crystal Palace will continue the search for their first league victories when they meet on Saturday at Goodison Park.
Everton have had the more painful start, somehow managing to lose from two goals ahead in back-to-back league games and also giving back a goal in last weekend's 1-1 draw at Leicester City.
Palace have settled for draws in their last three, including 0-0 last weekend at home to Manchester United, while losing the attacking momentum they built at the start of the Oliver Glasner tenure last spring.
Everton edged last season's series, earning a 3-2 win at Selhurst Park before the teams played to a 1-1 draw at Goodison in the final match before Glasner took the reins.
Everton vs. Crystal Palace Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Everton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -190 | 2.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +162 | 2.5 -110o / -110u | +162 |
- Everton vs. Crystal Palace moneyline odds: Everton +170, Crystal Palace +162, Draw +230
- Everton vs. Crystal Palace over/under: 2.5 goals (over -110, under -110)
- Everton vs. Crystal Palace pick: Eberechi Eze to score any time.
I am backing Eberechi Eze to score in Crystal Palace vs. Everton.
Everton Preview
One reason for Everton's relative success in the first full season under Sean Dyche is that while they weren't built to come from behind, they were very good playing from in front, in particular at home.
10 of the Toffees' 13 victories came with clean sheets, including all seven at home. And while a wager on "yes" in the both teams to score market was one of the most profitable overall in the Premier League last season, Everton matches were the exception: "No" cashed in 23-of-38 league fixtures.
So why has that defense been solved more often this year? The feeling around Goodison is that it mostly owes to squad health, with center back Jarrad Branthwaite yet to play this season, while Seamus Colman and Nathan Patterson are also injured. Branthwaite is questionable to make his return Saturday, and that could be a big boost if he does considering how much the Toffees have struggled in defending crosses.
Going forward, Everton may be more versatile than they were last season even though they've failed to earn results so far. Former Sheffield United winger Iliman Ndayie in particular has looked excellent since his acquisition this summer from Marseille, and he was rewarded with a deserved first Premier League goal against Leicester.
Crystal Palace Preview
After both Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze spent much of the season on the injury shelf, the wide duo shined down the stretch for Glasner's Palace squad as one of the Premier League's best wing pairings.
Palace scored 23 goals — or 40.4% of their total league haul of 57 for the season — during their final eight league matches. And while the Eagles exceeded their expected goals created over that stretch, their rate of 1.8 xG created per 90 over those games was still quite impressive.
And while Eze remains one of Palace's most dangerous players, it's clear he and his teammate are struggling to replicate that kind of enterprising play since Olise's summer move to Bayern Munich, and to a lesser extent since Jordan Ayew's departure to Leicester City.
The 1.4 xG per 90 minutes created isn't a major disappointment on the surface. But it looks worse when you look at the schedule, which hasn't featured a single team in the current top four or who one finished there last season.
That said, in striker Eddie Nketiah and winger Ismaila Saar, Palace have a pair of players who whould be capable of filling those voids left by Olise and Ayew. They're both very early in their tenures with their new clubs after late summer moves, so maybe the ceiling on this attack is considerably higher than the current product.
Everton vs. Crystal Palace Prediction
As an Everton supporter who watches the club pretty closely, my gut instinct is that this is a good buy low spot for the Toffees. But I can't make a case for it based on the data available, and if I can't make that case, I can't endorse it.
What I can endorse is the same wager I suggested the last time I wrote up a Crystal Palace match — a bet on Eze to score any time.
While he doesn't play striker, the talented England winger remains Palace's most goal-dangerous player from open play. He averaged 0.4 xG per 90 minutes last season and is basically at that same number this season. He's also due — having scored only once on 2.1 xG so far.
At +300 and an implied 25% probability, I think he's good value to find the net against a Toffees back line that I'm not convinced will be transformed into last season's version just because Branthwaite is healthy.
