Everton vs Fulham Odds
| Everton Odds | -118 |
| Fulham Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -120 / +100 |
The EFL Cup quarterfinal slate begins on Tuesday with three of the four matches taking place across England. Six of the eight quarterfinalists are Premier League sides, including the matchup between Everton and Fulham at Goodison Park. These two sides met on the opening day of the Premier League season, and the Toffees missed a dozen chances and lost 1-0 at home as a +130 moneyline favorite.
Fulham saw their winning streak end with a 3-0 loss at Newcastle on Saturday, and Marco Silva's side will be without red hot striker Raul Jimenez after he was sent off on Saturday and suspended for the next three matches.
Both clubs have surpassed expectations this season, but the Toffees' underlying statistical profile is solidly better than the Cottagers overall. Everton have won four straight matches in the league against Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Chelsea and Burnley. The Toffees are the better team and they're at home, which makes Everton the undervalued side in this key cup quarterfinal.
Here is my Everton vs Fulham prediction in my latest best bets.
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Everton
There are a couple of injury concerns for Everton that have popped up in the last week, but the Toffees are relatively healthy at this point in the season and should be a full go for this cup match. Everton will get key defender Jarrod Branthwaite back from suspension. Abdoulaye Doucoure's status is in doubt due to injury, but the Toffees have Amadou Onana, Idrissa Gueye and James Garner all fit to make up the three-man midfield if Doucoure can't go.
The Toffees became an extremely high event team last year to produce a viable Premier League attack. Their defensive numbers remained incredibly mediocre and actually got worse once Sean Dyche became manager, but the attack improved by even more than the defense fell off and the trade-off was a net positive for Everton.
Don't look now, but Everton are allowing the third lowest non-penalty xG in the league and the second-fewest big scoring chances. One key aspect is health. By having most of its first XI healthy of late, the pressing off the ball has worked. Everton give up almost nothing on set pieces (3rd in xGA per set piece) and they rank second in ball recoveries.
No team in the Premier League has more tackles + interceptions than Everton and the result of that is an above-average defense by almost every metric. Against a Fulham side that also likes to aggressively win the ball, the Cottagers could run into some tactical problems with Everton's directness.
Fulham
Fulham's defense adheres the old Bundesliga joke that they're either going to win the ball in midfield or clear it off the line as their defensive approach. As a result, teams don't get a ton of box domination or field tilt on Fulham, but you can get a handful of very high quality chances against them.
Fulham rank above-average in box entries allowed, crosses allowed and they are seventh in ball recoveries. Between Pereira, Palhinha, Alex Iwobi and Antonee Robinson, there's so much energy and ball-winning. There is not a great defensive output though. Fulham are 18th in non-penalty xG conceded and have allowed the fifth-most big scoring chances.
The Cottagers have picked on some very passive defenses at home in recent weeks — Forest and West Ham especially. When Fulham have gone on the road this year, they rank 17th in xG difference per 90. The absence of Jimenez due to suspension means a likely start for Rodrigo Muniz, who averaged 0.31 xG per 90 in the Championship and doesn't look like a mid-table starting level striker that Fulham needs him to be.
Silva's defense is generally quite aggressive in trying to win the ball, but Everton are one of the most efficient possession teams and aren't going to play through the press. They'll just play directly over it and put a lot of pressure on the back line to handle Everton's direct out balls.
Everton vs Fulham
Prediction
It's never easy enough to produce a projected team strength based off of non-penalty xG difference for the season, but it's a good baseline in this case. The Toffees have been 0.71 non-penalty goals better than Fulham this season through 17 PL matches.
Given both sides are near full strength and Everton are at home, this price is short on the Toffees. Think back to opening day. Both clubs had borderline relegation level numbers the year prior and it was fair to rate them as near equals. Everton were the right side at plus money at home that day and they are once again in this EFL Cup quarterfinal.
I'd bet Everton up to -110 at home.
