Everton look for their third win in four matches when they host Fulham at Goodison Park in the Premier League.
The Toffees picked up a huge win over Ipswich Town over the weekend which has them now five points above the relegation zone. Everton are finally starting to head in the right direction after a tough couple of seasons, so three points here would be massive for them with an easy schedule coming up.
Fulham have hit a bit of a rough patch, losing back to back matches to Manchester City and Aston Villa, but the Toffees have been very impressive this season. The Cottagers are sitting just in the bottom half of the table, but the underlying numbers have been very impressive, which explains why they are slight favorites in this match.
Let's dive into my Everton vs. Fulham prediction.
Everton vs. Fulham Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Everton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +175 | 2.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Fulham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -220 | 2.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
- Everton vs. Fulham moneyline odds: Everton +175, Fulham +160, Draw +235
- Everton vs. Fulham over/under: 2.5 goals (over -110, under -110)
- Everton vs. Fulham pick: Over 2.5
I am backing the Over 2.5 in Fulham vs. Everton.
Everton Preview
Everton have won two of their last three matches, but so far this season any decent offensive team has exposed them. In matches not against Ipswich, Leicester and Crystal Palace, Everton are allowing 2.08 xG per 90 minutes. The reason for it is teams have either been able stretch their defense and find space to play through the middle or have been able to overload wide areas and find a lot of success sending in crosses to the box.
The Toffees have allowed the most crosses to be completed into their penalty area, which is concerning because that is the whole point of the Sean Dyche tactical system. Everton want to close off the middle of the pitch and force the ball out wide and take their chances with teams beating them with crosses because they believe they are better in the air. Fulham are the one team that can really take advantage of Everton’s weakness. The Cottagers have completed the most crosses into the penalty area, which is bad news for Everton.
Offensively, Everton are looking better with Iliman Ndiaye in the lineup. The combination of him, Jack Harrison and Dwight McNeil gives Everton a lot of transition threats because those three are not only great ball carriers, but great creators as well. Everton are going to play "route one" football like they always do, which is going to make this match very back and forth.
Fulham Preview
Fulham have been incredibly impressive this season under Marco Silva, but this match will be a really big test to how good they truly are. Fulham lost to Manchester United in the opening match of the season and lost the expected goals battle 2.4 to 2.0. Since that point they have a +4.8 expected goal differential and have not lost the expected goals battle in their last seven matches.
What makes this team so difficult to play against is their versatility both in and out of possession. Fulham have been building out of the back more often in a 4-3-3 formation with one holding midfielder and two advancing midfielders in Smith-Rowe and Pereira positioning themselves in between the lines to exploit spaces creating passing triangles. That has allowed Fulham to quickly and swiftly progress the ball up the pitch. With that being said, they haven’t lost what has kept them in the Premier League, which is their ability to play direct. Oftentimes when the build up isn’t working or they are playing against an opponent that man marks, they will play a lot of direct balls up to the forwards, which is how they scored their opening goal against Aston Villa.
While Fulham’s defense has been outstanding this season, they are in a little bit of a precarious position for this match. Sasa Lukic, who is really their only ball winning midfielder in the squad, is injured, and on top of that Joachim Anderson is suspended for this match. That means that Sader Berge has to play as the lone holding midfielder. He’s perfectly fine for Fulham’s build up, but he’s not a great ball winner. He was thrust into that type of role with Burnley last season and they were one of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League.
Everton vs. Fulham Prediction
There was no shortage of chances when these two met last season in the Premier League. There was only one goal scored over their two meetings, but there were 7.7 expected goals, so I am expecting there to be a lot of chances in this match.
Fulham have a massive advantage in wide areas. Everton will sacrifice space out there so Fulham can't play through the middle, but it's the worst possible matchup for them given how good Fulham are at creating 3 v 2 and 2 v 1 overloads in wide areas and completing crosses into the box.
For Fulham, since Anderson and Lukic are both out for this match, they will be vulnerable right through the middle, which makes some like Ndiaye even more dangerous.
I have 3.06 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
