Man City vs Everton Odds
| Man City Odds | -163 |
| Everton Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Everton look to rebound from a loss at Spurs when they host Manchester City.
The Toffees were beaten 2-1 on the road by Tottenham, but the underlying performance suggested they should have come away with at least a point. Before the loss, Everton had won four straight without conceding a goal before the loss on Saturday, which has firmly put them out of the relegation fight. This will be a big test to see how they can hang with the defending champions.
Manchester City are coming home with their first FIFA Club World Cup title in the club's history, but the reality is they are falling behind in the title race. The Cityzens are starting to get healthier with Kevin De Bruyne and others returning, and that could set them up for a second half of the season charge like last year.
Read on for my Everton vs Man City prediction.
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Everton
Everton had yet another result that they didn't deserve at Tottenham and it really highlights that the Toffees are now a top half of the table club.
Spurs 2 : 1 Everton
▪ xG: 1.69 – 2.42
▪ xThreat: 1.24 – 1.5
▪ Possession: 59.9% – 40.1%
▪ Field Tilt: 38.0% – 62.0%
▪ Def Action Height: 44.9 – 58.6#msbot_eng#eplpic.twitter.com/PmOhpbaTYo— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) December 23, 2023
If you take away Everton's 10 point deduction, they would be sitting in 10th place with 26 points, just one point behind Brighton and two points behind Manchester United. The reason that Everton have improved so much this season has been their performance out of possession. Sean Dyche's teams don't typically hold a lot of possession, so there is a premium on the work they do when they don't have the ball. Last season, Everton had to be super aggressive when they were out of possession because they needed wins to get out of the relegation fight, which led to them allowing 1.69 npxG per 90 minutes.
This season, Everton don't have that type of pressure and can be a little more passive out of possession, focusing on their defensive shape and preventing teams from creating high quality chances. They've been one of the better defensive teams in the Premier League allowing only 1.13 npxG per 90 minutes, which is third-best in the Premier League behind only Manchester City and Arsenal.
Everton like to play "no nonsense" football, meaning they are going to play super direct, get the ball out wide and swing in crosses to try and create chances. Having Dominic Calvert-Lewin healthy has been a breath of fresh air for the Toffees as he is back to his old form, putting up a 0.61 xG per 90 minute scoring rate.
One big advantage Everton are going to have in this game is on set pieces. Dyche always puts a premium on them and Everton have delivered, scoring 10 goals off of set plays this season, which is the second-most in the Premier League. Manchester City's one weakness defensively has been defending set plays, as they are 19th in the Premier League in xG allowed per set piece.
Man City
This is a weird spot for Manchester City coming back from the Middle East and winning the Club World Cup just to enter a hostile Goodison Park. The good news for Pep Guardiola is their main man De Bruyne has finally returned from injury.
His absence was notable over the first half of the season because of how much he provides to Manchester City's attack. What De Bruyne does best is his work in between the lines when Manchester City are breaking down low blocks, he is so good at either finding that pocket of space or dragging defenders out of their position when they try and man mark him to create space for others. Phil Foden, Julian Alvarez and Bernardo Silva have tried to fill this role, but nobody can do it to the level De Bruyne can.
We will see how much De Bruyne actually plays in this game as I am sure he will be on a minutes restriction, but what has been interesting with Manchester City this season is how much of a drop off there has been with their offense and their pressing out of possession.
Currently, Manchester City are averaging 1.71 npxG per 90 minutes, when last season they were up at 1.90. They are averaging pretty much the exact same amount of shots as last season, which means the chances they are creating have not been as high quality as the year prior. The cause could be that they are averaging 0.5 shots per 90 minutes less inside the penalty box and their xG per shot has also dropped a decent percentage.
Manchester City have been really good defensively, but their pressing has been well below what they've done in years past. Manchester City used to be near the top in PPDA and opponent build up completion percentage allowed, but now they are ninth and 14th in those two categories respectively, which means they are allowing a higher xThreat as well.
Everton vs Man City
Prediction
Everton have been incredible at Goodison Park this season, putting up a +6.2 expected goal differential.
This is a quick turnaround for Manchester City traveling back from the Middle East. The question is will they be able to break down Everton's low block? De Bruyne being back is a significant boost, but how effective and how long he will play is a mystery coming off a significant hamstring injury.
Everton's ability to play "route one" football can give Manchester City some problems, and don't be surprised if the Toffees knick a goal off a set piece, where Manchester City have struggled defensively.
I only have Manchester City projected at -115, so I love the value on Everton +1 at -107.
