Everton look for back to back wins in the Premier League when they host Newcastle at Goodison Park.
The Toffees got their first win of the season last weekend, coming from behind to beat Crystal Palace 2-1. It was a disastrous start for Everton after blowing leads in three different matches, so the win was needed to get them out of the relegation zone. They beat Newcastle last season at home and will be hoping for a similar result on Saturday.
Newcastle got a great result in their last match, drawing with Manchester City at home to remain in the top half of the table. It's been an interesting start for Newcastle who have won three of their first six matches, but the underlying numbers are not encouraging. This is also a bad spot for them with their star striker Alexander Isak being out. They are also on the road, where they've struggled for the better part of a year.
Everton vs. Newcastle Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Everton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -140 | 2.5 -152o / +114u | +125 |
| Newcastle Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +125 | 2.5 -152o / +114u | +200 |
- Everton vs. Newcastle moneyline odds: Newcastle +125, Everton +200, Draw +260
- Everton vs. Newcastle over/under: 2.5 goals (over -152, under +114)
- Everton vs. Newcastle pick: Everton +0.5
I am backing Everton +0.5 in Newcastle vs. Everton.
Everton Preview
The results with Everton right now look bad, but they don't tell the entire story. The Toffees have conceded 15 goals on the season but have conceded 9.9 expected goals. Jordan Pickford has uncharacteristically been horrible this season, having a -3.5 post shot xG +/-, which is the worst mark in the Premier League. He's never been worse than -2.8 over the course of a full season since he joined Everton, so I would expect him to get better as the season goes along.
What will help Pickford and the Everton defense overall is Jarrad Branthwaite being back in the lineup. He is without a doubt not only Everton's best defender, but their best player as well. Last season, he had a 68.6% aerial duel win rate, which will help Everton's ability to defend crosses and also win second balls.
What Sean Dyche wants his team do out of possession is play a high defensive block, cut off any lanes for teams to play through the middle and use that to force high turnovers. Everton are third in the Premier League in forcing opponents into losing possession in dangerous areas and are also top five in ball recoveries.
Even if the results haven't shown it, Everton have been really good at Goodison Park because since the start of last season, they have a +4.6 expected goal differential at home.
Newcastle Preview
Eddie Howe has made some changes to Newcastle this season. The Magpies have been one of the most direct teams in the Premier League under him, as they try to press opponents high, use their physicality and force high turnover to create easy transition opportunities. They aren't really doing that at the level they were two years ago, so instead he's having them sit in a 4-5-1 mid block and trying to deny opponents from playing through the middle of the pitch. It's not really working because Newcastle are allowing the third-most shots and box entries so far this season.
The other change that Eddie Howe has made is he wants his team to build out of the back more to try to have more control over matches. It hasn't been going very well so far, as Newcastle have the worst build up completion percentage in the Premier League through six matches. Even if they do decide to play direct in this match, I am not sure they are going win very many aerial duels or second balls because Alexander Isak is most likley not going to play in this match.
That means that Newcastle are going to have to play Anthony Gordon again as a false nine, which takes away their biggest advantage that they have against Everton: crosses. Newcastle are completing the third-most crosses into the penalty area, but without any aerial threats in the box to get on the end of them, they are stuck offensively.
Newcastle have also really struggled away from home under Eddie Howe. The Magpies had a negative expected goal differential away from St. James Park last season, and that has continued into this season as well.
Everton vs Newcastle Prediction
This match is going to be very similar to when Newcastle went on the road to play Bournemouth. The Magpies really struggled to defend the Cherries in transition that day and the same could happen here against Everton.
If Newcastle decide to try and build out of the back and control this match, that is going to play right into what Everton want to do, which is press out of their high block to create high turnovers.
Once Newcastle are able to get the ball into the final third, really the only way to beat Everton is with crosses. With Isak likely not going to feature in this game and Callum Wilson still injured, the Magpies don't have any aerial threats to trouble Everton.
Everton beat Newcastle 3-0 and created 3.3 expected goals against them at Goodison Park last season and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar result on Saturday.
I have this match projected pretty close to a pick'em, so I like the value on Everton +0.5 at -140.
