Everton vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Everton Odds | +110 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
Everton and Nottingham Forest sit just two and one point above the relegation places, respectively, and will play a critical relegation six-pointer on Sunday. Both teams would be comfortably safe if not for points deductions assessed to both clubs for Financial Fair Play violations, but now neither can feel too comfortable about their current position with five-to-six matches remaining in the season.
Nottingham Forest have picked up six points in its last five matches with a win and three draws, including an enthralling 2-2 draw with Wolves last weekend. Forest created more of the chances, but their set piece defensive woes cost them yet another goal and two points. Everton finally found a win two weeks ago against Burnley, but the Toffees' 6-0 beatdown loss to Chelsea on Monday is a reminder of how poor their form has been in the second half of the season.
Everton have just one league win since Christmas, but the Toffees are +110 to take all three points on Sunday.
Here is my Everton vs Nottingham Forest prediction.
Everton
Everton have scored 16 goals from open play in the Premier League this year, which is the fewest in the English top flight. Some of their low goal totals are a result of poor finishing, but it also shows just how much they are reliant on set pieces to generate any real chances. Everton are 14th in xG created from open play as well.
When you switch to set pieces: Everton rank first in xGF and second in goals with 15. In total, 15 of their 31 goals in the league have come from set pieces. In this matchup against a poor Forest set piece defense, it's a huge advantage and the best path for Everton to score. Forest have conceded 21 goals from set pieces, which is five more than every other PL team. Even with a new goalkeeper, new manager and a different approach, Nottingham Forest have been a defensive sieve and that is Everton's best chance of scoring.
The problem is whether or not Everton can really rely on just set piece dominance as a home favorite when their open play attack is so inconsistent. The numbers are also trending downward. Everton's xG per shot has been in steady decline since December and even the once stellar defensive metrics have taken a tumble overall.
Everton have allowed 1.76 xG per match since Christmas, which is just below league average. The scoring is up league-wide and for most of the first half of the season, Everton were a profitable team to back as an underdog because of the solid defense and the set piece efficiency. Now that the defense is struggling, the market is taking note and has moved against them from the opening line in three consecutive weeks.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest have been a bet on team for me for most of the second half of the PL campaign. The club has been totally incapable of finding a quality shot stopper in goal, but the underlying metrics are pretty solid since Nuno Espirito Santo became manager. There's one stat that best shows Nottingham Forest's improvements under Espirito Santo.
xG per 90 allowed since Christmas:
Arsenal 0.57
Manchester City 0.91
Liverpool 1.09
Nottingham Forest 1.20
Bournemouth 1.43
Nottingham Forest's defense is actually closer to the top three than the rest of the league when it comes to preventing chances created. Teams finish quite efficiently against Forest because of the continued poor goalie play, but the defense is legitimately improved and now even the attack is more lively with a fit Anthony Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White leading the transition attacks.
Forest have a +0.06 xG difference per 90 since the New Year, which is considerably better than Everton's.
Everton vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
Everton were the clear better team in the first half of the season when compared to Nottingham Forest. When these two teams met at the City Ground in December, it was a low-event and low scoring matchup that ended 1-0 to Everton but was essentially a statistical tie.
Since that match, Forest have a positive xG difference while Everton has slipped to be a -0.43 xG difference per match team. The Toffees don't deserve to be this much of a favorite in this match given their offensive inefficiency and over reliance on set plays.
