Everton vs Sheffield Pick, Prediction: The Exact Score to Bet

Saturday, May 11

10 a.m. ET

Peacock

Everton Odds	-250
Sheffield United Odds	+650
Draw	+400
Over / Under	2.5  -225o / +175u

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Everton will look to close its home campaign with its fifth consecutive victory at Goodison Park when it hosts a Sheffield United side that could make the wrong kind of Premier League history on Saturday.

The Toffees had struggled at home for much of the season, but turned that around at a critical time to secure Premier League safety with three games to spare.

The Blades will pass 1993-1994 Swindon Town as the worst PL defense on record if they concede once more in their final two games, with the next being their 101st allowed.

These sides drew 2-2 at Bramall Lane in early September, marking the first point of the campaign for both teams.

Everton

Everton would sit 13th and have achieved safety several games earlier without the eight points they were docked. And if their attack had performed in line with their expected goals total, they could have been in the neighborhood of 10th or 11th.

But their sudden uptick in form isn’t a sign that they’ve finally solved their problems finishing quality chances from open play, even while winning three home games over eight days.

In a 2-0 victory over Nottingham Forest, the difference was a pair of excellent strikes from distance on low-quality chances. In a 2-0 win over Liverpool, it was a pair of goals from set pieces, the one area in which Sean Dyche’s men have excelled all season.

And in Monday night’s 1-1 draw at Luton, it was Everton’s second penalty of the campaign that denied the Hatters three points.

The other strange part about Everton this season at home is that their record isn’t all that varied depending on the level of competition.

In eight games against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, they’ve taken 1.38 points per game. That’s an almost identical figure to their haul at home against teams in the top half — 1.40 points per game across 10 matches.

Sheffield United

Sheffield United has given an admirable effort down the stretch despite their difficult position. But perhaps a sense of resignation has surfaced in their most-recent defeats.

The Blades held a deserved early lead in last weekend’s home match against Nottingham Forest and probably should’ve doubled their advantage before halftime. But once Forest found an equalizer in a fixture crucial for their own survival chances, the surrender of a second and a third came all too easily.

The result was a fourth-straight league match conceding three or more times, which represents a uniquely bad stretch even for this historically bad defense.

The Blades have conceded about 1.58 extra goals per match over those four games relative to xG model predictions. That’s an increase in severity of a pattern that has been present all season. In 36 matches, xG models say Sheffield United has yielded about 0.85 extra goals per game.

That deficit has made it virtually impossible for an attack that improved over the winter to make any material difference in results. The Blades have scored multiple goals in eight league games since Chris Wilder took over for Paul Heckingbottom, but have won just one of those.

Everton vs Sheffield United

Prediction

This is a difficult game for several reasons.

It's unclear how the lack of competitive implications will impact both sides and the trends between these clubs couldn't be any more opposed.

While Sheffield United is historically bad defensively, Everton is the worst attacking side of any team guaranteed safety. And while the Toffees have the worst record in the Premier League of scoring relative to their expected goals, the Blades have the worst record of conceding relative to their expected goals against.

But what we can guess is that if Everton does win, it's unlikely to be the kind of romp we've seen the Blades suffer elsewhere of late. While Everton have only three wins against the bottom-10 teams in the table, they have two wins and a draw against the bottom four, with all of those wins coming by one or two goals.

And Sheffield United's worst losses have come mostly at home when trying to take more of an attacking initiative. On their travels, they've lost six of eight to bottom-half foes, but only one by a margin of more than two.

So, with books and bettors heavily backing the hosts, the play is to target a narrow victory and wager that Everton wins by one or two goals. You'll have to make two separate bets at most books, but if you put about 54% of your stake on a one-goal margin and 46% stake on a two-goal margin, you're simulated odds of cashing either comes out at about even money.

(At Bet365, bet "tie" on the "spread result" +1, and bet "tie" on the "alternative spread result" +2.)

Pick: Everton to win by 1 exact (+275, BetRivers), Everton to win by 2 exact (+333, BetRivers)

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