Everton vs. Wolves Odds
| Everton Odds | +135 |
| Wolves Odds | +220 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+122 / -144) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-110 / -110) |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up to the minute soccer odds here. | |
After all of the excitement and thrilling drama that came with the conclusion of the 2022 World Cup, nothing should signal a return to the Premier League season quite like Everton's match against Wolves on Boxing Day.
Everton and Wolves have been two of the worst attacking teams in the entire league this season and both have thus far largely underperformed the mediocre preseason expectations set for both clubs this season.
Wolves have fired manager Bruno Lage and sit at the foot of the Premier League table. Everton's underlying numbers are bad enough that they could be at the foot of the table, but a hot run of defensive over-performance has Frank Lampard's job safe for now.
Even still, the Toffees are only in 17th and haven't even played Arsenal or Manchester City yet in the first half of the season's double round robin.
Wolves have the better underlying numbers and as bad as their attack has been, this is a prime hold your nose spot for newly appointed manager Julen Lopetegui and Wolves.
Everton Fortunate to Be Outside of Relegation Zone
In terms of xG difference, Everton have the second-worst underlying numbers this season. Only Bournemouth have had a worse delta of chances created and chances conceded. The numbers haven't been good at home or away from home.
It's even worse when you consider that Everton's defense is 19th in xG allowed and haven't even played two of the three best attacks in the league yet. When you factor in opponent quality, Everton have performed worse than every defense in the Premier League.
Despite this, they've only conceded 17 goals in 15 matches. It's been a combination of elite shot stopping from Jordan Pickford in goal and poor opposition finishing. Both are due to regress going forward and the Toffees will have major problems when that happens.
They don't stop the ball from coming into their penalty area, they don't stop crosses and no team has conceded more balls into the area. The only strength has been defending set pieces, but they won't have center back Connor Coady for this match because he's ineligible to play against his parent club.
Everton also thought the World Cup break would enable them to get Dominic Calvert-Lewin into the lineup, but his status remains in doubt. Lampard said they don't want to rush him back and that could mean a limited bench role for him on Monday.
Wolves Looking to Regroup With New Focus
Wolves fired Lage because they only scored eight goals in 15 matches. On one hand, Lage was unfortunate because Wolves had finished at a ridiculously poor rate and had been due for positive regression. But even the production of chances was poor. Wolves are 18th in NPxG created and dead-last in big scoring chances. The attack is quite poor new ideas were needed.
Enter Lopetegui, who was recently fired from his post at Sevilla. Lopetegui isn't the most exciting manager, but he does have a clear tactical plan of attack and one that could fit Wolves well here. He likes to use slow build up play, progress the ball up the wings and use lots of crosses.
Wolves are eighth in crosses into the box and ninth in passes into the penalty area. Getting the ball there really hasn't been a problem this season. It's what happens once the ball gets there. Lopetegui's new ideas and some positive finishing regression could give Wolves a bump.
In the long term there's just not much talent to work with in attack. However, they have plenty of tricky wingers who can create space and cross effectively. Everton's defense should be under plenty of pressure in this game defending their penalty area.
Everton vs. Wolves Pick
Even though they're away from home, this match sets up for Wolves to have the majority of the possession. The passing ability and technical quality is much superior in the Wolves midfield, while Everton's is more built to play without the ball and do some running and tackling.
Wolves also average about 5% more possession per match this season. The question becomes whether or not Wolves can break down the defend and counter approach of Everton. In theory, Wolves haven't been able to do that effectively all year.
Nonetheless, Everton's defense has been quite poor all season, it won't have Coady and is thus still due to regress. For that reason, the market is overvaluing Everton's defense and undervaluing Wolves' attack.
I'll take Wolves to score in the first half and Wolves on the draw no bet line. Both of these bets lose more than they win, but both are much closer to coin flips than the market suggests.
Pick: Wolves PK (+126) | Wolves First Half Team Total o0.5 (+150)
