Soccer Picks & Predictions · Saturday, March 16
For the remainder of the 2023-24 club soccer season, Action Network's soccer betting experts bring you odds, picks and predictions for a variety of games, including those across leagues that may not be frequently covered as extensively as the Champions League or Premier League.
Read on for Unexpected Goals, our daily soccer betting roundup.
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Wolfsburg vs Augsburg
Augsburg have been playing really well as of late and they’ve made a tactical switch that has brought them this success.
In the past, Augsburg were one of the few extremely passive teams in a league where everyone presses. They consistently were one of the worst defensive teams and over performed their underlying numbers to an extreme level.
Since January 21st, they have switched to a 4-1-2-1-2 and are aiming at attacking opponents transitionally through the middle and pressing out of that narrow structure as well. From an out of possession standpoint, it’s been really successful because since that date, they have the best PPDA in the Bundesliga and for the season have forced the third-most turnovers.
Not only that, but they are starting to control the ball more, as they’ve held over 50% possession in six of their last eight matches. Those six matches where they controlled over 50% of the ball came against teams in the bottom half of the table. In total for the season they have +2.9 xGD against teams in the bottom half of the table.
Wolfsburg have not won a match in 2024. In fact, they have only matches since the beginning of November. They are the definition of an average Bundesliga team and struggle in a couple of key areas. First they have a hard time defending crosses, ranking 16th in crosses completed into their penalty area. That is a problem because Augsburg have completed the most crosses of anyone in the Bundesliga into the penalty area.
Pick: Augsburg +0.5 (-125 via FanDuel)
Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest
With how bad Luton Town have been defending in transition, I am not sure this is the best of matchups for them.
They obviously need a result here and if they are going to play super aggressive out of possession, man mark across the pitch and also press high. That is going to play right into Nottingham Forest’s strengths, utilizing the pace they have in transition to get in behind and create chances.
Nottingham Forest out of possession haven't really changed under Nuno. They are still playing a passive defensive block, but their defensive numbers have drastically improved under him against non-elite sides. They had some bad matches against Aston Villa, Liverpool and Newcastle, but in six of his nine Premier League matches in charge, they have held opponents under 1.5 expected goals.
Additionally, their defensive block has been the best in the Premier League at preventing teams from getting into the penalty area once they enter the final third. Forest have the best final third to box entry conversion rate allowed at 25.6%, so it will be well equipped to prevent Brighton from getting in their penalty area.
There was also a stretch during January and February where pretty much all of Nottingham Forest's back line was away at the Africa Cup of Nations. Even with that in mind, under Nuno, Nottingham Forest have a -0.10 xGD per 90 minutes, while under Cooper it was at a -0.42 xGD per 90 minutes.
Really the only concern here for Nottingham Forest is they struggle defending set pieces. They have conceded the most goals off of them this season, but other than that this is a pretty good matchup for them.
I have Forest projected as a +126 favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet at -122.
Man City vs Newcastle
This feels very similar to the match Newcastle just played against Arsenal.
Here is the problem that exists for Newcastle in this match. They do not have a structure out of possession that can give Man City problems. Eddie Howe started the season out in a 4-3-3, but now they’ve lost Sandro Tonali and Joelinton, which are two of their most important players for making their hybrid press work effectively.
With the 4-3-3 press not working, Eddie Howe switched Newcastle to a 4-5-1 mid block, which wasn't working as good build up teams were able to exploit them in the space in between the defensive lines. Manchester City did this time and time again in the previous meeting on their way to 3.0 expected goals, 27 shots and 21 passes into the penalty area.
So, Howe went back to his patented 4-3-3 press against Aston Villa, but with a different twist.
Newcastle are now pushing their back line up high and going man to man marking the opposing attacking players, which is incredibly aggressive and dangerous because of the personnel they have across their backline. Newcastle’s back line is slow by Premier League standards and since they switched to this new pressing structure. Everyone has been able to exploit it so far, so I don’t think they have much hope of stopping City here. We just watched Luton Town try to man mark them and Haaland scored five goals.
I think that City are going to run rampant here and like the value on their team total over.
Pick: Man City Team Total Over 2.5 (-120 via FanDuel)
