Chelsea vs. Manchester United Odds, Pick
| Chelsea odds | +190[BET NOW] |
| Manchester United Odds | +135 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +235 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-107/-117) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Sunday, 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds as of Friday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Manchester United looks to extend its unbeaten run to 20 consecutive matches and pick up a third win over Chelsea this season when the two sides meet at Wembley Stadium on Sunday in the second of two FA Cup semifinals.
The Red Devils picked up a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace on Thursday, while Chelsea notched a 1-0 win over Norwich on Tuesday; the two teams will battle for the two remaining Champions League places.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
As dynamic as the Chelsea attack has been since the restart — the Blues have garnered 16.59 xG in seven matches — they have struggled away from Stamford Bridge defensively.
Goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga has been the league’s second-worst keeper, and in their last four Premier League road games, Chelsea has allowed 2.1 xG to Sheffield United, 1.3 to Crystal Palace, 1.2 to Aston Villa and 2.6 to West Ham.
None of those teams have anywhere near the offensive firepower as Manchester United, who are getting excellent goal-scoring from Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford (17 goals each).
Combine that with the creative duo of Paul Pogba (0.3 xA/90 since the restart) and Bruno Fernandes (seven goals, seven assists in 12 appearances), and United will be able to hit Chelsea on the counter with pace and ability that the Blues haven’t been able to handle away from home.
On the other side, there are signs that the Manchester United defense is a bit overrated. In the 12 games since Fernandes arrived at the club, United has conceded six goals from 12.5 xGA, which includes a game at Chelsea where the Blues had 17 shots and 1.3 xG but failed to score.
Since the restart, United has faced just two teams that rank in the Premier League's top-10 in attacking ability, and both Tottenham and Southampton were able to find the back of the net against the Red Devils.
Chelsea managed only one goal against Norwich on Tuesday, but that was mostly a result of poor finishing rather than lackluster attacking play. The Blues created 3.05 xG in that match, and with better finishing from striker Olivier Giroud, it would have been two or three goals.
Manager Frank Lampard’s willingness to switch up formations in order to get both Tammy Abraham and Giroud on the pitch together is also encouraging for my bet in this match because of how easily the Blues managed to get shots off and how vulnerable they then looked on the counter.
While late-round cup matches tend to be cagey, lower-scoring affairs, I’m not expecting that from either side in this matchup. Chelsea should have more of the ball, United will look to hit them on the counter and I’m expecting both teams to score in the match.
That said, I don’t see much value in the -141 price on both teams to score. Instead, I’ll back over 2.5 goals and expect plenty of back and forth action. It’s the only way Chelsea knows how to play, and United’s attack is much more potent with Pogba and Fernandes patrolling the space outside the box and using their elite passing range to generate chances.
