England's premier domestic cup competition is down to the final eight teams and just four of them are in the Premier League. Man City, Man United and Brighton are favorites to advance to the semifinal next month, while Sheffield United and Blackburn will face off in a battle of the two top teams in the Championship table.
Manchester United host Fulham in the only matchup between two EPL teams, while Brighton host fourth-tier side Grimsby Town and are the biggest moneyline favorite of the entire round.
Here are my two favorite spots for the FA Cup this weekend:
FA Cup Odds & Picks
Man City vs Burnley
| Manchester City Odds | -700 |
| Burnley Odds | +1400 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-192 / +146) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 1:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
One of the best stories in England this season has been the Championship campaign of Burnley under new manager Vincent Kompany. The Manchester City legend will have a chance to pull a stunning upset of his former club in the FA Cup quarterfinals on Saturday. He's proven himself as a capable tactician already at Burnley, but the Clarets have also been on a historic finishing run and the attack is overvalued in the market here.
Burnley have scored 74 goals in the Championship from 52.7 xG. They have a solid talent edge in attacking quality but also have benefitted greatly from poor goalkeeper play against them. Opposing goalies have a -12.9 PSxG against Burnley, which is nearly double the difference between them and the next most fortunate team at -6.9 goals.
Manchester City just thrashed RB Leipzig for seven goals in the Champions League on Tuesday and some of their top players will surely have one eye on the international break coming up.
I'd expect Pep Guardiola to rotate some of his top attackers for this quarterfinal at home against a second division side. Burnley remain a very capable out of possession team, even though they've retained 63% of the ball in the league this season, more than any other team in the second division.
Burnley allow the fewest shots per 90, so I don't expect them to be overwhelmed and unable to slow down City's attack.
The Clarets went to Old Trafford in the EFL Cup and held Manchester United to just 10 shots right after the World Cup break ended. They'll struggle to keep City out and stay in this match, but the total should be more of a juiced under 3 than the 3.25 currently available at BetRivers.
Dabbundo's Pick: Under 3.25 goals (-124 via BetRivers)
Sheffield United vs Blackburn
| Sheffield United Odds | -165 |
| Blackburn Odds | +430 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 8 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
A quick glance at the Championship table and you'd expect to see this game lined closer than it actually is. The table is lying about the true quality of Blackburn this season. They've run ridiculously well in close games and rode some hot finishing variance in attack into the promotion picture despite clearly below average metrics overall.
They have 19 wins and 14 defeats despite just a +1 goal difference. That should immediately sound alarm bells about potential regression looming. Throw in Blackburn's xG difference (-0.28 per 90) and you have a team that's closer to relegation than the playoff picture. They've played a lot of coin flip or worse games on xG and won most of them.
The attack has the fourth-longest average shot distance. They're not particularly elite on set pieces and the attack produces the second-fewest shots per 90. Now the Rovers face a Sheffield United defense that is elite and has the second-best underlying metrics in the league. The Blades don't have a lot of possession a lot of the time, but they also don't concede many chances from direct attacks or counters.
Blackburn might have some defensive possession in this match, but the attack is due to regress and an away cup quarterfinal against a better side is a good spot for that.
Instead of laying the juice on Sheffield United to win in regulation, I prefer to target a more specific angle that plays against the overvalued Blackburn attack. Sheffield United to win to nil at +160 or better.
Dabbundo's Pick: Sheffield United win to nil (+160 or better)
