France will look to bring home their first title since 2000 and are poised for another deep run after making the final of the 2022 World Cup.
France enter as the second-favorite and it's hard to argue against that. The best player in the world, Kylian Mbappe, has been incredible for the French National Team for over six years now and is the favorite to take home the Golden Boot. Didier Deschamps has been in charge of France for well over a decade now, so there is a clear idea of how France like to play and it's really difficult for anyone to stop let alone slow down.
France cruised through qualifying without much of a sweat. They won seven of their eight matches and outscored their opponent 29 to 3 . They will get to play the Netherlands again in their group who they beat twice during qualifying.
Let's get into my France Euro 2024 preview.
Tactical Analysis
France are a unique team in the fact that they are not interested in controlling matches they way Spain or England are. They instead are always looking to either get into transition or looking to make runs off the opponent's back line.
France typically build up up in either a 2-3-5 or 4-2-4 with their full backs always staying deep to help aid in build up. Rabiot and Griezmann occupy the half spaces and drop in when necessary or find space in between the lines.
Not surprisingly, France have a left side bias when they get to the opponent's final third because that is where Kylian Mbappe resides. Theo Hernandez will typically push up and overlap or combine with him to create space.
France defend out of their 4-3-3 shape and will typically man mark in a mid block. They are very active in the mid block, trying to win the ball off their opponent to create a transition opportunity. Because they go man to man, there are times where midfielders can get pulled out of position to create space in the middle, which is something the Dutch tried to exploit.
The key to beating France is overloading the right side of the pitch, because Mbappe doesn’t do much defensive work and Rabiot is left defending a lot of space, which means if teams are able to get numerical advantages on that side, they can have some success.
France are pretty stout defensively, allowing only 0.83 xG per 90 minutes, but they allowed a 44% cross completion rate, which is the highest in the Euro field with most of those being cutbacks considering they do win a high number of aerial duels.
data via WyScout
Final Verdict
It's really hard to justify betting France at this low of a number to win the Euros. Not because they have significant flaws because they're clearly the most talented team in this tournament outside of England. The problem is, if they finish first in their group and England finishes first in Group C, they will be on the same side of the bracket.
France have all of the talent in the world and should go to at least the semifinals, but there isn't much value on any of their future or group prices because they typically get overvalued by the market.
There is a player prop for France that I like and it's Antoine Griezmann to lead the tournament in assists at 18/1.
Griezmann’s role with the French National Team is a unique one. He’s given the freedom to roam all around the pitch to either find pockets of space in between the lines or pull defenders out of position. During qualifying, he mainly operated in the right half space, but when France got in trouble he moved over into the left half space, which is where he played for a majority of the World Cup. In their recent friendly against Luxembourg, he was operating in the left half space, so it looks like that is where he will be for the Euros.
Mbappe is the favorite to win the Golden Boot and if he’s going to win it, it's most likely going to be because of Griezmann.
