France vs Belgium Odds, France – Belgium Picks
| France Odds | -110 |
| Belgium Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +110/ -138 |
Let's dive into the France vs Belgium odds and make a pick and prediction in our Euro 2024 betting preview for Monday, July 1.
After a difficult group stage, France look to turn the tides when they face off against Belgium.
France were the overwhelming favorites to win Group D, but they were able to win just one of their three group stage matches to finish in second and it put them on the difficult side of the bracket. However, France have been one of the best teams in this tournament at creating chances, even with Kylian Mbappe missing one match.
Belgium were throughly unimpressive during the group stage, finishing in second in the easiest group possible. Because of that, what was supposed to be a favorable path to the semifinals is now incredibly difficult. They will need to have a much improved performance if they want to hang with France.
France Picks
France have struggled during this tournament, but I think you will see a much different lineup with a lot better structure against Belgium.
Deschamps will most likely go back to the lineup he had against Austria and he should really bring on Camavinga for Rabiot. Everyone can overreact to France not even scoring a goal themselves from open play in those first three matches, but the reality is they were incredibly unlucky to not do so. France created 5.1 expected goals from non-penalty situations, but somehow they couldn’t find the back of the net, which was the third-most of anyone in the group stage. Not to mention, France have 107 penalty box touches through three matches, which is 12 more than anyone else.
Mbappe is back in the lineup after missing the match against the Netherlands and looked good against Poland. They created over two expected goals against a team that is used to sitting in a passive defensive structure and now they are going to face a team that isn’t very comfortable in that type of scenario.
Belgium Picks
For the entire group stage, Belgium have been the ones controlling possession and they have been good in that type of role when you look at xG. However, their back line has not been tested really at all and quite frankly, it isn’t talented enough to stop the attackers France have.
A back four of Wout Faes, who was terrible when Leicester were in the Premier League, Artur Theate, who is inexperienced playing at the highest level, Jan Vertongen, who is now 37 years old, and Timothy Castagne, who is more a ball progressing left back, is not going to stop one of the best attacks in the world.
I know that because the one instance during qualifying when they had to defend deep was against Austria, and they ended up conceding 2.49 expected goals on 14 shots.
It's also pretty clear that Belgium don't have another consistent attacking option other than Romelu Lukaku. He's the one that has taken a high percentage of their shots and even though he's been unlucky not to score, they need someone else to step up and be a goal scoring threat.
France vs Belgium
Prediction
France have shown that they are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. They have only allowed 1.6 non-penalty expected goals so far this tournament, which is second-best to only England. They have a center back pairing that can deal with Lukaku and as Belgium have shown, outside of him there really isn’t much of the threat in this attack, plus Dodi Lukebakio is suspended.
Belgium have been favored in almost every single match outside of one against Austria in qualifying (the one where they conceded 2.49 xG), so this is new territory for them and honestly it's not a matchup that suits them. Their press has been terrible and if they can't close down the ball, France are going to play right through them.
In addition to that, Belgium's best defensive players and ball stoppers are in the middle of the pitch, but France are going to want to get the ball out wide to Dembele and Mbappe, who are going to destroy Belgium's fullbacks.
I have France projected at -124, so I like the value on them at -110.
