France vs. Denmark Odds
| France Odds | -138 |
| Denmark Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110 / -138) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | -106/-125 |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
Despite conceding first on Tuesday, France had no issues dispatching Australia in a 4-1 victory to kick off their World Cup title defense.
They'll face a much more difficult test on Saturday when they take on Denmark. The Danes settled for a goalless draw with Tunisia and that puts their chances of qualifying for the next stage in some minor peril.
One lackluster performance from Denmark and a dominant French win has driven up the price toward Les Bleus on Saturday. France were around -110 on the three-way moneyline prior, but now they're up to -130 and even higher at some shops.
France overcame Australia because of the massive gap in talent, but the gap between Denmark and France really isn't that big when you look across the starting XI. There are some matchup advantages — especially out of possession — that the Danes have in midfield to exploit France and keep this match close to a stalemate.
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France Solid But Only Meeting Expectations
France created more expected goals (xG) than any team in the first match of the World Cup. The Aussies had no answer for Ousmane Dembele easily progressing the ball up the right flank and crossing.
They never got tight enough to Antoine Griezmann and allowed him to create 1.1 xAssists. In my view, that match had more to do with Australia's poor overall level. The Socceroos were fortunate to qualify based on underlying numbers and most good teams in this field would have exploited them.
Still, France did produce four goals from 4 xG. They really clicked into gear once going down 1-0 after a freak injury to Lucas Hernandez that led to conceding the first goal.
Didier Deschamps is notoriously conservative as a manager of the French national team. They have no real organized press out of possession and rely on individual playmaking talent and excellent set piece efficiency to produce chances. Deschamps is very reserved with how many players he's willing to send forward in attack and the priority is always on not getting beaten in transition.
Les Bleus are plenty familiar with this Danish side too. The two sides played to a draw in the 2018 World Cup group stage and also played twice this summer in the UEFA Nations League. Denmark won both of those matches and held France under 60% possession in both matches. The Danes have the midfield quality and cohesiveness to control portions of this match.
The narrative surrounding France was that Les Bleus would struggle without Karim Benzema for the group stage, but Olivier Giroud proved once again that he can still produce at an elite level for the national team. After all, he was the starting center forward for the World Cup team in 2018, not Benzema.
Denmark Looking Solid Ahead of Match
Denmark's opening performance of the World Cup was relatively flat, but most of the poor play against Tunisia was confined to the first half. The Danes looked like their usual selves in the second half and produced more than 1 xG in the second 45 minutes. They had much more control of the game in the second half and attempted nine shots, compared to just two in the opening half.
Even though the attack struggled, the defense looked quite solid overall. They conceded about 1 xG, but half of that came on an offside chance that went uncalled because the chance was saved. The Danish back three are all good enough to be regulars for Champions League and Premier League level clubs.
They have a ton of experience playing at the top level in Europe and throughout World Cup Qualifying too. Denmark didn't concede a goal in their first eight WCQ matches and a lot of that comes from their midfield's ball stopping.
Denmark's pressing ability is one that makes them dangerous against this French side. No club forced more high turnovers than the Danes at last year's Euros, and there are questions about the level of ball winning in the French midfield with a two-man group of Adrien Rabiot and Aurélien Tchouaméni.
France vs. Denmark Pick
Almost all of the best players for each team were on the pitch when these two teams played in the Nations League twice this summer. Denmark held 40% of the ball and came from 1-0 down to win the first match in France, and then held 48% of the ball and scored twice in the first half in a win at home against Les Bleus.
Given the game theory situation in the group, a draw would be a perfectly fine result for the French given that they have a superior goal difference and are currently at the top of the group. France have no reason to be the aggressor and Deschamps needs no invitation to be a more conservative side given his normal managerial approach.
Normally when a team is lined as an underdog like this, they're going to be playing and defending without the ball more often than not. But Denmark have shown they can keep possession right around even. If the press is effective, there won't be as many opportunities for Kylian Mbappé to take over this match. Denmark can be highly competitive and likely get at least a point.
I like Denmark +0.5 at -110 or better.
The Pick: Denmark +0.5 (+110)
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