Euro 2024 continues today on Friday, June 21 with three fixtures.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Friday's Netherlands vs France game and more.
Friday Euro 2024 Match Projections
Slovakia vs Ukraine, 9 a.m. ET
Both of these teams dropped in the power ratings following their opening showing. Slovakia beat Belgium but were thoroughly outplayed, while Ukraine were even worse against Romania.
I have Slovakia at 32.8% to win this game, giving us some value on the ML.
Pick: Slovakia ML (+280 via FanDuel)
Poland vs Austria, 12 p.m. ET
Poland played Netherlands close, losing 2-1 and the xG battle 1.5 to 1.3. Additionally, Lewandowski should be back vs Austria, who got manhandled by France.
Pick: Poland ML (+280 via FanDuel)
Netherlands vs France, 3 p.m. ET
- These teams faced each other twice in qualifying, averaging 3.3 xG/game in those two meetings
- Both teams are also coming off their first Euro games that each had a total of 2.8 xG/game
- That’s right around what I’m projecting, between 2.8 and 2.9 goals, have this favored to go over around 55%
These teams faced each other twice in qualifying, averaging 3.3 xG/game in those two meetings. Both teams are also coming off their first Euro game, each with a total of 2.8 xG/game.
That's right around what I'm projecting, between 2.8 and 2.9 goals.
