Euro 2024 continues on Friday, July 1 as we begin the quarterfinal stage.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Sunday's Spain – Germany and Portugal – France games.
Friday Euro 2024 Projections
Spain – Germany, 12 p.m. ET
Germany winning in 90 minutes is the most likely outcome (39.6%) per my simulations, with Germany advancing 55.1% of the time. That said, this projection is using the standard international home field advantage — if the Germans enjoy a larger advantage, they should be even heavier favorites, and if they have a smaller advantage, this game is essentially a coin flip.
Germany are undervalued in the market compared to my simulations. There's enough value that if you aren't on Spain futures, I don't mind taking a stance on Germany either through the moneyline or to advance.
I'm also showing some value on under 2.5, which i have at 59.6%, but again this hinges on how much home-field advantage we give Germany. If there's less advantage, Spain's potent offense is more likely to rack up goals.
Personally, since I have a Spain future in the form of Group B to win the Euros, I'm going to pass on this game, but if you want to follow the projections they are showing value on Germany and the under.
Portugal – France, 3 p.m. ET
France are 42.4% to win in 90 minutes and 56.8% to advance. I am also showing solid value on the over, which I bet back on Tuesday at +152. The current best line available is +140, but I like anything +125 or longer as my simulations make this game nearly a coin flip to go over.
France have zero non-penalty goals scored by their players on 6.9 non-penalty xG, which is likely why the market is underestimating this game to go over. France have the quality to meet, or even exceed expected goal production, so any regression to expectation favors the over.
