Group A and Group B return on Friday for their second set of games in the 2022 World Cup.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
We went 2-1 yesterday for +2.9 units to add to our Wednesday score of +8.6u.
Let's try to keep the ball rolling on this Black Friday!
Friday World Cup Projections
Group B: Wales vs. Iran (5 a.m. ET)
- Wales are a 50.3% favorite to win according to my simulations.
- Our power ratings show Iran allows 1.02 goals to an average international team.
- Wales are ranked significantly more highly than an average international team.
- Wales are 42.9% to score mutliple goals per my simulations.
- Best Bets: Wales ML (+120 via DraftKings), Wales over 1.5 goals (+164 via FanDuel)
- Bet to: +110 and +150 respectively
Group A: Qatar vs. Senegal (8 a.m. ET)
- Senegal are 32.9% to win according to my simulations.
- World Cup teams traditionally over-perform at home.
- Senegal are missing their best player, Sadio Mane.
- Don't be surprised to see Qatar pull off a shock win.
- Best Bets: Qatar ML (+525 via BetRivers), Qatar +0.5 (+130 via DraftKings)
- Bet to: +450 and +115 respectively
Group A: Netherlands vs. Ecuador (11 a.m. ET)
- Netherlands are 44.8% to win according to my simulations.
- Netherlands were underwhelming against Senegal losing the xG battle 0.7 to 0.9.
- Ecuador were very strong against Qatar with an xG of 1.3 to Qatar's 0.3.
- I have Ecuador favored to get a result.
- Best Bet: Ecuador +0.5 (+110 via DraftKings)
- Bet to: +110
Group B: England vs. USA (2 p.m. ET)
- England are a 57.3% favorite to win according to my simulations.
- My simulations probably underrate USA a touch as they were better than xG suggests against Wales.
- This match has a 31.0% chance to finish in a draw according to my simulations.
- It also has a 66.2% chance of staying under 2.5 goals.
- Let's combine them into one bet.
- Best Bet: Exact Score 0-0 or 1-1 (+440 via FanDuel)
- Bet to: +375
