Fulham vs Aston Villa Odds
| Fulham Odds | +187 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +130 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Fulham look for their first back-to-back league wins since December on Saturday when they host an Aston Villa side that needs to improve its away form to remain in contention for the UEFA Champions League places.
Fulham pulled off an encouraging 3-1 victory over Bournemouth on Saturday on the strength of an excellent first-half performance and first career brace from Brazilian attacker Rodrigo Muniz. That result halted a six-match winless run in all competitions, although three of those finished even and two more were decided by one goal.
Villa suffered a season-sweep at the hands of Manchester United, falling 2-1 at Villa Park for only their second home league defeat on Sunday. The result dropped the Villains a point beneath Tottenham Hotspur into fifth in the league table and outside the four guaranteed UCL berths.
Aston Villa won the previous league meeting 3-1 in early November in what was their sixth consecutive league home victory by multiple goals.
Read on for my Fulham vs Aston Villa prediction.
Fulham
With Raul Jimenez sidelined for several more weeks with a hamstring issue — and scoring only in fits and spurts before that — Fulham brought Chelsea's Armando Broja in on loan to add what appeared to be much-needed options at center forward.
But it's been Muniz who has stepped up in the vacuum left by Jimenez's absence so far, scoring his first career PL goal in a 2-2 draw at Burnley and then adding his brace with a goal on either side of halftime against the Cherries.
Both goals owed to service from wide positions and the second in particular was created by a world-class cross from Willian on the left flank. Still, that Muniz has excelled at getting into the right positions has to be encouraging for Marco Silva after the 22-year-old has been used sparingly this year and had an inconsistent loan spell at Middlesbrough the previous season.
The victory was Fulham's seventh at home this season and vaulted the Cottages above Bournemouth into 12th in the league table, as well as 10 points clear of the relegation places. Yet Bournemouth's 1.8 expected goals generated marked the sixth consecutive time that a league opponent created at least 1.6 xG against Silva's men.
Silva will have a couple of reinforcements to choose from in the contest, with midfielder Alex Iwobi and defender Calvin Bassey returning after helping Nigeria reach the final of the African Cup of Nations.
Aston Villa
Villa have overachieved their xG numbers more often than not this season, but things have gone in the opposite direction against the Red Devils.
After giving back a two-goal lead in a 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford on Boxing Day, Villa failed in their comeback bid on Sunday despite bossing much of the match's middle portion, a stretch that resulted in Douglas Luiz's opportunistic 67th-minute equalizer.
But Unai Emery's squad generated few chances of significance after that blow and then were caught off guard when substitute Scott McTominay scored Man United's 86th-minute winner. Thus ended a series where the Villains won the xG tally 4.1 to 3.0, but were outscored 5-3.
It also marked a second consecutive home league defeat, a reversal of the first half of the season in which Emery's squad won its first eight at Villa Park. Fortunately, their away form has also been undergoing a bit of reversal, with the Midlanders earning points in five of their last six league fixtures. They've also scored multiple goals in all but one of those matches.
But that could be difficult to build upon with growing injury concerns defensively. Defensive midfielder Boubacar Kamara could miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury sustained midway through the second half of last weekend's loss, and center back Diego Carlos is also out with a hamstring issue.
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Prediction
Early impressions mean a lot, and perhaps they explain why Villa are favorites in this game when maybe they shouldn't be. Emery's squad at one point led the league, while Silva's group looked like they might be battling relegation at one point.
But if you look at Fulham's xG numbers at home against what Villa has produced on their travels, if anything the Cottagers should be favored. If you look at match results with those home/away splits, the odds at worst should probably be even.
So there is value in backing the home side to pick up points in some form here. The biggest return for the least risk might be playing the Cottagers to earn at least a draw and the total to go above 1.5 goals at +100 odds and an implied 50% probability.
The wager has cashed exactly 50% of the time, which at first doesn't suggest much value. But if you think the lean should be toward Fulham, then the splits get a lot more appealing. Fulham have picked up points only once when the total hasn't gone above 1.5, and Villa have only dropped points as an away side when two or more goals are scored.
There probably isn't a value much lower than this price, however.
