Fulham vs. Aston Villa Odds
| Fulham Odds | +185 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +155 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-106 / -116) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 2:30 ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Aston Villa had one of the more unfortunate results of the entire Premier League season when the Villains lost 2-0 at home to Chelsea last weekend.
Villa made one defensive error and conceded a free kick from outside the penalty area, but otherwise dominated the chances and shots in the match.
The pressure is mounting on Villa manager Steven Gerrard to find some results after they expected to be in the top half of the table but find themselves in 17th with just nine points through 10 matches.
Fulham have overachieved expectations in their return to the Premier League at this point, but the underlying numbers tell a bit of a different story. A hot finishing run for the attack has masked pretty concerning defensive numbers under manager Marco Silva.
The Cottagers are up in 12th in the table for now, but their xG difference suggests regression could be coming in a big way in the upcoming fixtures.
As much as the Villa attack has struggled, they should be favored in this match because the defense remains stellar to this point.
Fulham Over-Performing in Attack
Fulham's attack has run extremely well this season as it is just 16th in xG per 90 created. One major source of the attack is direct play up the wings and crosses into Aleksandar Mitrovic. The Cottagers are the most direct attacking team in the league and rank sixth in crosses completed into the penalty area.
They have 16 goals from 11 xGF this season and have been due for attacking regression dating back to last season’s unsustainable over-performance in the Championship.
Fulham are also offering very little resistance to opposing teams from getting into their own penalty area. They are dead last in big scoring chances allowed and 17th in box entries. Fulham have started to get exposed in their last few matches — conceding a full xG to Bournemouth and more than three to both Newcastle and West Ham.
The defense is allowing the closest average shot distance in the entire league and is the only team allowing its average shot from within 15 yards. Villa have struggled to generate chances close to the goal all year but this could be the get right spot.
Aston Villa Have the Best Group on the Pitch
You may not like Aston Villa’s attacking numbers, but by far the best unit in this match is the Villans’ defense. Villa are excellent at stopping crosses — a major key against Fulham — and the defense has allowed the third fewest box entries in the league.
Villa’s defense is elite and is one of the best of the non big six sides at this point. The box entry numbers going forward suggest positive regression is coming for them in attack too. I know that I’ve been saying that for a while under Gerrard but the 2.4 xG created against Chelsea is a glimmer of hope that maybe things will improve.
For example, Villa are 10th in expected threat, a measure of possession in dangerous areas, and yet is just 16th in expected goals for. One encouraging sign is that Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins played up top together in the last match and tallied eight shots between them.
They have completed the fourth most crosses into the penalty area this season and Fulham's defense ranks just 15th in crosses defended.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This is a prime sell-high on a side that has had major glaring red flags defensively this season. My power ratings have Fulham 17th in the league and their underlying numbers suggest that they shouldn't be all the way up in 12th.
Teams tend to regress toward their underlying numbers over the course of an entire season and for Fulham that means the attack will cool off and the defense will continue to leak goals.
Aston Villa are the opposite of that for my numbers. They're in 17th but are really closer to 11th or 12th based on xG numbers. Villa have been more than a half goal better than Fulham on a neutral this year and should be more of a road favorite here. I'd bet Villa at -125 or better on the draw no bet line.
The Pick: Aston Villa – Draw No Bet (-125 or better)
