Fulham vs Bournemouth Odds
| Fulham Odds | +137 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Fulham will try to build momentum following a rare away point when they welcome a Bournemouth side looking to recapture their November and December form to Craven Cottage.
The Cottagers settled for a 2-2 draw at Burnley last Saturday. And while Marco Silva might feel his side should be disappointed not to earn a victory at the league's second-to-worst side in the table, it was still only the seventh point Fulham have taken away from home this season.
Meanwhile, the 10-man Cherries settled for a 1-1 draw at home on Sunday against a Nottingham Forest side that has shown recent signs of new life.
Justin Kluivert, Dominic Solanke and Luis Sinisterra all scored for Bournemouth in the previous meeting, making it two consecutive victories and five games without defeat for the Cherries against the Cottagers, dating back to both teams' recent days in the League Championship.
Here is my Fulham vs. Bournemouth prediction.
Fulham
With Raul Jimenez finding his goal-scoring form and appearing to gain a better understanding of his role under Silva, it appeared that maybe Fulham were evolving toward something closer to their 2022-2023 form.
In a stretch of six starts in which Jimenez scored five goals, the Cottagers put 19 past their opponents' goalkeeper and earned four league wins. And while it was never reasonable to expect Fulham to continue scoring more than three goals a game, it did seem possible that we'd see a more cohesive team in the second half of the season.
Instead, Jimenez went on the injury shelf after he was removed at halftime of a 0-0 home draw against Everton and is likely to be out at least a month.
His absence allowed the 22-year-old Rodrigo Muniz to gain his fourth career Premier League start. Muniz repaid Silva's faith by doubling Fulham's early lead at Burnley in the 21st minute.
But the Cottagers were pegged back by two late goals from David Fofana and settled for a disappointing 2-2 draw, extending a winless run to six matches in all competitions since their impressive 2-1 home win over Arsenal.
Fulham has the fourth-most xG allowed in the Premier League (40.2) and the fourth-worst xG difference (-11.8) and unlike last season, Fulham hasn't been able to overcome that.
However, they still have a +3.0 xGD at home, where they've earned six of their seven league wins, and their defensive record at home is slightly better than the league average.
Bournemouth
There's no questions surrounding Bournemouth's center-forward role, with Solanke enjoying the best Premier League season of his career under the pressing/transition-oriented style of Andoni Iraola.
The former Chelsea and Liverpool man has already scored 13 league goals and is pretty good value for that total on 11.6 xG worth of chances. And of particular note, he has scored in five home matches and five away fixtures, one reason the Cherries have enjoyed a better away record relative to their home performances.
However, his brilliance alone hasn't been enough to carry Bournemouth's rousing November and December into the new year.
The Cherries' only win since New Year's Day came in a 5-0 drubbing of Swansea City in the FA Cup Fourth Round. And one reason may be that Solanke's supporting cast hasn't proven proficient enough at taking chances.
Kluivert and Antoine Semenyo are the club's next-highest scorers with three goals each, a big reason the club moved to add Turkish forward Enes Unal on loan from Getafe at the end of the January window.
At the same time, the class of opponents has improved substantially in the new year, with the Cherries facing three of the league's top seven clubs, according to the current table. They haven't lost in the league to a team outside the top five since a 2-1 home defeat to the Wolverhampton Wanderers in October.
Fulham vs Bournemouth
Prediction
Bournemouth doesn't have a great defensive record, but since Iraola's side has turned the corner, the Cherries have been immensely improved in that aspect. In the past 12 league games, they've allowed opponents more than 1.1 xG on only three occasions — against Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham.
When you combine that with inconsistency in terms of who is leading the line for the home side, this a good spot to back the Cherries. I'll keep it simple with a draw-no-bet wager at +117 odds and an implied 46.1% probability that all games that don't finish even end up going Bournemouth's way. I'd play it at any price better than even money.
And even with Fulham's far better defensive record at home, Solanke as an anytime goal scorer has to be at least in consideration against a team that has allowed 1.6 xG or more in six of its past seven league fixtures. You can find it as high as +200 if you have access to Bet365 in your state, and there's probably some value at north of +150 odds.
