Fulham and Brentford will face off Monday in the English Premier League. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET from Craven Cottage in London.
Fulham has been mired in a mini-slump in terms of results, going three league fixtures winless despite credible performances in all of them. Most recently, the Cottagers gave back a late lead in a 1-1 draw at Everton in which the visitors probably deserved all three points.
Brentford has found its rhythm in the post-Ivan Toney era. Bryan Mbeumo has inserted himself in the Premier League Golden Boot conversation with eight league goals so far, and the Bees have been a fun watch for neutrals with an average of four combined goals scored per league match.
Here is my Brentford vs. Fulham prediction.
Brentford vs. Fulham Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Brentford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -115 | 2.5 -163o / 130u | +240 |
| Fulham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +103 | 2.5 -163o / 130u | +100 |
- Brentford vs. Fulham moneyline odds: Brentford +240, Draw +280, Fulham +100
- Brentford vs. Fulham over/under: 2.5 goals (-163o / +130u)
- Brentford vs. Fulham pick: Over 3 goals (+105, BetRivers)
I am backing the total to go over 3 goals in Brentford vs Fulham.
Brentford vs Fulham Premier League Preview
Through the first nine matchdays and 90 matches of the EPL season, only five times has a team posted more than four expected goals created over the course of 90 minutes. Thomas Frank's Brentford is the only side to have done it twice. But it's also been feast or famine, with the Bees failing to exceed the 1.0 xG threshold in five of their nine league games.
Brentford is also one of only two sides still seeking its first away point of the season, but that has more to do with a weirdly unbalanced schedule that has seen the Bees visit Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, and Manchester United.
Meanwhile, it feels like Fulham has been nursing an emotional hangover after failing to pull off a historic result at Manchester City a few weeks ago in what finished a 3-2 win by the Cityzens.
A week later, Andreas Pereira missed a potential go-ahead penalty before halftime in what finished a 3-1 home defeat to Aston Villa. And then at Everton, a momentary lapse in second-half stoppage time resulted in Beto's headed equalizer after the Toffees had created very little.
All that said, given Brentford's penchant for goals for and against so far this season, the line that initially stands out here is the total.
Sometimes, that can be a trap if the game doesn't involve a team from the upper reaches of the table — because it's often opponents who supply more of the offense with mid-table teams whose higher total wagers pay out regularly.
But what this fixture provides that many in the Premier League don't is a track record between two mid-table managers, which suggests how this might tactically play out.
Thomas Frank has squared off against Marco Silva four times in the league over the last two seasons. The average combined xG value of those matches was 3.4, and bettors who took the over on a total of 3 were 2-1-1. The lone loss for those punters came in early May of last season when both teams were in the doldrums of having already assured survival but fallen adrift of European competition (that one finished 0-0).
I think the overall tendency is worth backing here, given the other signs also suggest goals. So I'm selling a half-goal and playing the total above 3 goals at +105 odds and an implied 48.7% probability.
Brentford vs Fulham Prediction
My Pick: Over 3 goals (+105, BetRivers)
